Ivory Coast expects its economy to accelerate over the next five years, driven by a surge in oil and gas production that government officials say will transform the country’s growth trajectory and strengthen its push toward upper-middle-income status. Planning and Development Minister Kaba Nialé outlined the projections on Wednesday at an African Development Bank conference in Rabat, where she said fossil-fuel output is poised for a strong rise as new offshore discoveries move toward development.
Oil production, currently about 44,000 barrels per day in 2024, is projected to climb to at least 200,000 barrels per day between 2027 and 2028. The outlook is even more ambitious over the long term, with the energy ministry forecasting crude output of as much as 500,000 barrels a day by 2035. Gas production is also expected to pick up, providing feedstock for domestic power generation and supporting industrial expansion.
The upbeat projections reflect increased activity by global energy companies. Eni, which made the giant Baleine discovery in 2021, continues to scale up its offshore investments and fast-track development phases. Vaalco Energy and Petrobras have also expanded their operations, drawn by a policy environment that encourages private-sector contracting and production-sharing partnerships. “It’s a paradigm shift,” said Patrick Achi, minister of state and adviser to President Alassane Ouattara, who noted that the government has moved deliberately to establish a regulatory framework that meets investor expectations while maximising national benefits.
The scale of anticipated energy expansion marks a significant shift for Ivory Coast, whose economy has historically been anchored in agriculture, particularly cocoa, cashew nuts and rubber. While these sectors remain dominant employers, the volatility of global commodity prices and climate-related risks have reinforced the need for diversification. The government sees hydrocarbons as a strategic hedge that can generate revenue, finance infrastructure, support industrialisation and reduce reliance on imported fuels.
Authorities believe the energy sector will serve as a catalytic driver of broader economic reforms. Real GDP growth, which averaged 6.5 percent between 2021 and 2025, is targeted to reach 7.2 percent by 2030. Officials say the combination of expanding hydrocarbon revenue, public investment in transport and power infrastructure, and improvements in business regulation will help accelerate private investment across manufacturing, services and digital sectors.
The projected increase in oil and gas output carries significant fiscal implications. Higher exports could boost government revenue and foreign exchange reserves, strengthening the country’s external position and supporting macroeconomic stability. The expansion is also expected to create opportunities in supply chains linked to drilling, logistics, engineering services and the domestic power market, where natural gas remains a key resource for electricity generation.
Still, officials acknowledge that the benefits will depend on effective governance and continued reforms. The government faces pressure to ensure transparency around production-sharing agreements, manage environmental risks, and avoid the pitfalls that have affected other resource-rich countries. There are also concerns that rapid growth in fossil-fuel production could complicate climate commitments, even as authorities argue that gas development is essential for industrial growth and energy security in the medium term.
Ivory Coast’s leadership insists that the shift toward hydrocarbons will complement rather than displace the country’s agricultural base. Investments in value addition for cocoa, cashew processing and rubber products continue to form part of the country’s industrialisation agenda, even as hydrocarbons provide new fiscal space for development spending.
For now, the country is positioning itself as West Africa’s next major energy frontier, leveraging investor confidence, political stability and an expanding pipeline of offshore discoveries. If production ramps up as forecast, Ivory Coast could become one of the largest oil producers in the region by the early 2030s, reshaping its economic profile and providing momentum for its long-term development goals.
