The Director of Research and Chief Investment Officer at Panterra Real Estate Group, Ayo Ibaru, has projected that Nigeria’s real estate market will record uneven submarket growth in 2026, moderated by pre-election uncertainties ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Ibaru spoke during his presentation at the 2026 Nigeria Construction & Real Estate Market Outlook, themed ‘Infrastructure Development: A Catalyst for Real Estate, Construction & Economic Growth’. The event was organised by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Nigeria Group in collaboration with the Nigerian Institution of Surveyors and the Nigerian Institute of Quantity Surveyors.
According to him, while infrastructure-led expansion and digital integration are expected to create new opportunities, political cycles will shape investor behaviour.
“The real estate market in 2026 will see uneven submarket growth tempered by pre-election uncertainties. Recent studies underscore the market’s resilience, contributing 5–6 per cent to the gross domestic product,” Ibaru said.
He noted that historical patterns from the 2011, 2015 and 2019 presidential elections show that property markets are often sensitive to electoral cycles, with transaction volumes slowing as investors adopt a cautious stance.
Ibaru explained that investment activity in pre-election years is typically hesitant before becoming highly selective. He added that the approach to the 2023 elections saw liquidity in some submarkets, though it remains unclear whether this reflected genuine demand or speculative positioning.
“A strengthening naira, announced inflation reduction, and relative forex stability are focus areas for the managers of Nigeria’s economy. And there are new considerations. For one, the United States is more willing to muscle its way into emerging markets. This could moderate transaction volumes while encouraging more liquid, lower-risk opportunities,” he stated.
He pointed out that pre-election periods have historically been marked by subdued activity and delayed investment commitments. Ahead of the 2023 elections, high inflation and policy uncertainty contributed to a 20–30 per cent dip in foreign investments, he said, adding that some analysts anticipate similar trends in 2026–2027.
Nonetheless, he projected that election-related spending could provide temporary boosts to short-term rentals and commercial spaces, even if broader long-term commitments stall.
Ibaru further predicted that projects heavily dependent on government policies may face delays due to concerns over potential policy reversals, despite post-reform efforts from 2025 aimed at mitigating investment risks. He said sustained tight monetary policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria would be critical to stabilising the naira and restoring investor confidence.
On land markets, Ibaru said appreciation is expected in 2026, driven by infrastructure expansion and diaspora inflows.
“Land scarcity in urban cores will, however, continue to push values further north. Regional disparities will see the Southwest dominating transaction value due to active dynamics, regardless of title risks and speculation,” he said.
He added that Abuja’s land market would likely remain tied to government employment cycles, political activity and the diplomatic community, while Port Harcourt may resume more stable growth patterns following easing political tensions in the state.
Despite political headwinds, Ibaru maintained that demand for warehousing and logistics assets would remain resilient, reflecting structural shifts in trade, e-commerce and supply chain development across Nigeria.
