Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude, projecting that prices will average $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to a new commodities outlook report.
The upward revision reflects tighter oil inventories in advanced economies and shifting supply dynamics that have altered the bank’s earlier assumptions. The latest projection marks a $6 increase from its previous estimate for the same period, signalling a firmer near term pricing environment despite expectations of an overall supply surplus next year.
In its updated forecast, the bank also lifted its outlook for West Texas Intermediate crude. WTI is now expected to average $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, also up by $6 compared to earlier projections.
For the full year 2026, Goldman now expects Brent to average $64 per barrel, up from its previous forecast of $56. WTI is projected to average $60 per barrel for the year, compared with a prior estimate of $52. The revisions suggest a recalibration rather than a structural shift in the bank’s broader oil market view.
The bank attributed the adjustment largely to lower crude inventories across countries in the Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development. Reduced stock levels limit the market’s buffer against supply shocks and tend to support higher short term prices. However, Goldman maintained its expectation that global oil markets will remain in surplus next year.
The report noted that the bank continues to project a global oil surplus of about 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026. This indicates that while inventories are tighter than previously assumed, overall supply is still expected to exceed demand.
Goldman also referenced geopolitical factors in its outlook. It stated that its fourth quarter Brent forecast reflects “a gradual unwinding of a $6 geopolitical risk premium if tensions ease.” The bank’s analysis assumes no major escalation in key oil producing regions and no sustained disruption to Iranian output.
At the same time, it warned that prices could soften if sanctions on major producers are relaxed. Under such a scenario, Brent could fall by as much as $5 per barrel and WTI by up to $8 in the fourth quarter of 2026, as additional supply reenters the market.
The bank expects OPEC plus production to increase gradually from the second quarter of 2026. It believes that inventory builds have not been significant enough to delay supply adjustments from the producer alliance.
Oil markets reacted cautiously to renewed diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran over nuclear negotiations, with prices easing slightly on expectations of reduced geopolitical risk. Brent futures were trading around $71 per barrel at the time of the report, while WTI hovered near $65.
Overall, Goldman’s revised outlook signals a more balanced market than previously anticipated, though not one defined by sustained tightness. The adjustment underscores the sensitivity of oil prices to inventory data, geopolitical developments and coordinated supply decisions by major producers.
