Global crude oil prices experienced a decline on Tuesday, marking the first downturn since the escalation of hostilities involving Iran, the United States, and Israel began on February 28, 2026.
Market data indicates that Brent crude dropped to $91.11 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $86.93. This shift comes after both benchmarks recently approached the $100 threshold during the height of the regional tension.
The price correction is largely attributed to statements made by U.S. President Donald Trump during a Monday interview with CBN News. Trump indicated that the military engagement might be reaching its conclusion, stating that the conflict is very complete and noting that U.S. operations are moving ahead of schedule.
Following these comments, WTI crude immediately reacted by dipping below the $90 mark. This ends a ten-day rally where prices climbed significantly from a baseline of $67 per barrel.
The previous surge in costs was driven by logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary closure of refining facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. As the prospect of a de-escalation grows, market volatility appears to be easing from its peak levels.
Impact on Nigeria
The global price spike has had an immediate and severe domestic impact, primarily manifesting through sharp increases in transportation costs and commodity prices. On March 9, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery adjusted its ex-gantry petrol price to N1,175 per litre, marking its third price hike in a single week. The refinery also revised its diesel price upward to N1,620 per litre, citing a total exposure to international benchmarks, freight charges, and the surging cost of crude oil.
This adjustment at the refinery level has triggered a domino effect across the country:
- Retail Surge: Pump prices at filling stations have jumped to between N1,250 and N1,400 per litre in major cities like Abuja, Lagos, and Ibadan.
- Transport Hardship: Commuters are facing doubled fares on many routes, with transporters in the FCT reporting a 100% increase in some inter-city trips due to the fuel hike.
- Economic Forecasts: Industry groups, including the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), have warned that if the Middle East conflict continues to obstruct shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, petrol prices could potentially climb toward N2,000 per litre.
While the recent dip in global crude prices to the $90 range may offer temporary relief, local analysts, including Professor Wumi Iledare, note that domestic prices often lag behind global drops but react instantly to spikes. Furthermore, the refinery’s CEO, David Bird, emphasized that because the facility purchases crude at international market rates, often $3 to $6 above the Brent benchmark, Nigeria remains vulnerable to external shocks despite its domestic refining capacity.
