Nigeria’s headline inflation slowed to 14.45% in November 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Monday, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline this year and falling below President Bola Tinubu’s 15% target. The figure represents a significant drop from 16.05% in October and is the lowest inflation rate recorded in five years, comparable to levels last seen during the COVID-19 period in 2020. On a year-on-year basis, inflation was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60% recorded in November 2024, signalling a notable improvement in price stability.
Food inflation, a key driver of household expenditure, also slowed sharply to 11.08% year-on-year, compared with 39.93% a year earlier, largely due to a change in the base year used for calculations. However, month-on-month food prices rose by 1.13%, driven by higher costs of staples such as tomatoes, cassava, eggs, and onions. The trend highlights the continuing vulnerability of households to short-term price spikes in essential goods despite overall inflation easing.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained its policy rate at 27% last month, signalling a cautious approach to monetary policy amid improving inflationary conditions. Analysts suggest that the steady decline in inflation could provide room for gradual monetary easing in the future, potentially lowering borrowing costs and stimulating business investment.
The economic implications of sustained lower inflation are significant. Reduced inflationary pressure can increase consumers’ purchasing power, support private sector growth, and improve confidence among investors. For policymakers, maintaining this trend will require careful coordination of fiscal and monetary measures, continued investment in food supply chains, and monitoring of currency stability, particularly as external shocks and global commodity price fluctuations could reverse gains.
The recent data also underscores the importance of structural interventions in agriculture and logistics, given that staple price increases continue to affect households month-to-month. Addressing supply-side bottlenecks, improving storage infrastructure, and enhancing market access for farmers could help smooth food price volatility and reinforce the broader inflationary decline.
Overall, Nigeria’s easing inflation provides a positive signal for economic stability, offering hope for improved living standards and investment prospects. However, policymakers and businesses alike must remain vigilant to prevent temporary price surges from undermining broader macroeconomic gains.
