In October 2025, Nigeria saw a welcome easing in its inflation rate, with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting a drop to 16.05%, down from 18.02% in September.
NBS noted that “in October 2025, the Headline inflation rate eased to 16.05% relative to the September 2025 headline inflation rate of 18.02%.” This decline of 1.96 percentage points month-on-month marks a significant step in disinflation.
When compared year-on-year, the picture is even more striking. The current 16.05% rate is 17.82 percentage points lower than October 2024’s figure of 33.88%. This improvement is partly due to a change in the base year used by the NBS.
Meanwhile, on a month-to-month basis, the inflation rate grew by 0.93%, a slightly faster pace than September’s 0.72%. Urban inflation is now at 15.65% year-on-year, while rural inflation stands at 15.86%, both considerably lower than their levels in October 2024.
Food inflation, a major concern for consumers, showed signs of relief. On a monthly basis, it actually declined by –0.37%, suggesting improving availability of staples and easing supply pressures. However, the annual food inflation rate remains elevated at 13.12%hp, a significant drop from last year’s 39.16%, again influenced by the base-year adjustment.
Economists had predicted the inflation rate would fall to 16.2%–17.76% in October, citing factors such as better food supplies, improved foreign exchange stability, and more favourable supply dynamics. Their forecasts also strengthened the case for a further monetary policy rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
This inflation drop could boost investor confidence and enable the Central Bank to lower interest rates further, easing borrowing costs. If sustained, it may support consumer spending and economic growth, while reducing pressure on Nigeria’s central bank to maintain tight monetary policy just to fight runaway price rises.
