Nigeria’s diesel market is facing renewed pressure, with Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly called diesel, selling above ₦2,000 per litre in some markets as global fuel supplies tighten and domestic refiners adjust prices. Reports on Friday, 4 September 2026, put retail diesel prices in parts of Abuja at about ₦2,000 to ₦2,020 per litre. The reports also showed significant differences between markets, with some Lagos depots selling below ₦1,800.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised its diesel gantry price by ₦100 to ₦1,850 per litre from 4 September, according to TheCable. The increase followed another adjustment earlier in the month, highlighting the rapid movement in the wholesale market.
The price pressure comes as international oil and refined-fuel markets remain unsettled. Reuters reported on 8 September 2026 that Brent crude reached $97.92 a barrel after attacks on Saudi energy facilities by Iran-backed Houthi forces increased fears over supplies from the Middle East.
Reuters also reported the same day that global diesel supplies are expected to remain tight because of limited refining capacity, geopolitical tensions and strong seasonal demand. Industry executives told Reuters that disruptions in Russia and the Middle East have removed millions of barrels a day of diesel supply from the market.
The impact is particularly important for Nigerian businesses because diesel remains widely used to power generators, factories, farms, logistics operations and other equipment.
Higher diesel costs increase the cost of running those businesses. Manufacturers and transport operators may then have to raise prices to protect their margins, creating another channel through which energy costs can feed into inflation.
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) warned on 8 September 2026 that sustained increases in diesel prices could raise production and transportation costs, worsen food inflation and put additional pressure on manufacturers, according to Punch.
Recent NMDPRA data also shows that Nigeria remains dependent on imported diesel despite the expansion of local refining.
According to figures reported from the regulator’s July 2026 data, Nigeria received about 731.6 million litres of diesel during July, equivalent to roughly 23.6 million litres per day. Imports accounted for about 244.9 million litres, while domestic refineries supplied the larger share.
The data reported by TheCable also showed that Dangote Refinery was responsible for most domestic refinery output during the month, while the NNPC-owned refineries recorded no diesel production in July.
That leaves Nigeria exposed to international refined-fuel prices even as domestic refining capacity expands.
The latest pressure is strengthening the case for greater domestic refining and reliable crude supply to Nigerian refineries.
Dangote Refinery Chief Executive David Bird told Reuters on 8 September 2026 that global fuel shortages could continue beyond the current US-Iran conflict because of damage to Middle Eastern refineries, high refinery utilisation and the need to rebuild fuel inventories.
For Nigeria, the lesson is straightforward: more domestic refining can reduce exposure to imported refined products, but it does not automatically shield consumers from global oil-price movements.
Until local supply becomes sufficiently deep and reliable, higher international crude and diesel prices can still work their way through Nigeria’s fuel market, and eventually into the cost of producing, transporting and buying everyday goods.
