Nigeria has been identified by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as one of the leading forces behind Africa’s growing refining industry, with the country expected to play a major role in reducing the continent’s dependence on imported fuel products.
In its 2026 World Oil Outlook report, OPEC stated that Africa will require nearly $92 billion in refining investments by 2050 to meet rising energy demand, improve fuel supply security, and strengthen local refining capacity. According to the report, Nigeria and Angola are expected to lead the next phase of refinery development across the continent.
OPEC noted that Africa’s refining sector is entering a new era after years of limited investment. The organization highlighted Nigeria’s achievements in refining, particularly through the successful operation of the Dangote Refinery and other upcoming projects that are expected to boost fuel production across the region.
The report explained that the estimated $92 billion investment requirement includes about $25 billion for projects expected before 2030 and another $67 billion for refinery expansions and new developments after 2030.
According to OPEC, Africa is expected to be one of the regions attracting significant downstream oil and gas investments over the coming decades. The organization said these investments will be necessary to keep up with growing fuel consumption and reduce reliance on imported refined petroleum products.
Nigeria’s role in this transformation is expected to be significant. The report pointed to the Dangote Refinery, which reached full operational capacity in February 2026, as a major milestone for the country and the continent. The refinery currently processes around 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day and is regarded as the largest single-train refinery in the world.
OPEC described the facility as a landmark project that has already changed the refining landscape in Africa. According to the report, the refinery’s commissioning contributed to a notable increase in Africa’s overall refining capacity and strengthened the continent’s ability to process crude oil locally.
Beyond the Dangote Refinery, OPEC also highlighted the proposed 200,000 barrels-per-day Akwa Ibom Refinery being developed by BUA Group. The organization noted that the project has progressed sufficiently in planning and development to be included in its medium-term outlook.
Several modular refinery projects being developed across Nigeria were also identified as important contributors to future refining growth. OPEC expects these facilities to help expand Africa’s refining capacity by about 800,000 barrels per day in the medium term, with Nigeria and Angola leading the increase.
Despite these positive developments, OPEC warned that Africa could still face a shortage of refining capacity compared to its growing fuel demand. The organization explained that delays in planned projects could increase pressure on the market and force countries to continue importing refined products.
The report stressed that achieving Africa’s long-term energy goals will require more than refinery construction alone. It called for stronger infrastructure development, better financing options, supportive government policies, expanded capital markets, and stronger partnerships between the public and private sectors.
OPEC added that greater investment in modular refineries and energy infrastructure would help African countries capture more value from their natural resources while creating jobs and supporting economic growth.
As fuel demand continues to rise across the continent, Nigeria is expected to remain at the center of Africa’s refining expansion, helping to drive energy security and industrial development for years to come.
