Business confidence in Nigeria climbed to its highest level in over a year in February 2026, supported by expectations of lower borrowing costs and optimism around the banking sector recapitalisation programme. This is according to data released by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).
According to the Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) report, the Current Business Performance Index rose to 117.2 points in February, up from 105.8 points in January and 111.5 points in the same period last year.
“Nigeria’s business environment remained in expansion territory in February 2026, with the Current Business Performance Index rising to 117.2 points from 105.8 points in January 2026 and 111.5 points in February 2025, signalling improved business conditions,” the report noted.
The improvement reflects stronger activity across manufacturing and non-manufacturing segments, easing cost pressures and improving demand conditions.
Sectoral data showed expansion across all five sectors tracked by the index. Non-manufacturing led performance at 128.9 points, followed by manufacturing at 121.1 points. Services rose to 109.2 points, trade rebounded to 108.7 points from contractionary levels in January, and agriculture edged into expansion territory at 104.8 points.
Key sub-indices, including production, demand conditions, financial performance, access to credit, employment and cash flow, remained above the 100-point threshold that signals expansion.
The report also noted that export activity, supply orders and trade stockpiling returned to expansion, suggesting strengthening domestic and external demand.
Cost pressures, though still elevated, moderated slightly. “In the month, the cost of doing business and input prices eased to 65.2 points and 84.3 points, respectively,” the report stated.
Despite the improved outlook, businesses continued to cite structural constraints such as limited access to financing, unreliable electricity supply, rising rental costs and insecurity.
Optimism about the near-term outlook strengthened further. The Future Business Expectations Index rose to 135.5 points in February, from 124.7 points in January.
Manufacturing and trade recorded the highest optimism levels, while services, though lower than other sectors, remained firmly in expansion territory.
The NESG attributed the positive sentiment partly to monetary easing expectations. “Businesses expressed optimism about a potential easing of borrowing costs following the 50 basis-point reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26.5 percent at the February 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting,” the report said.
It also pointed to the ongoing recapitalisation of deposit money banks, expected to be completed by March 2026, as a confidence booster.
“The ongoing recapitalisation of deposit money banks, with a March 2026 deadline, is expected to strengthen banks’ balance sheets and support increased lending to critical sectors of the economy,” the NESG said.
However, the group cautioned that excessive election-related fiscal spending could reverse recent disinflation gains and renew cost pressures for businesses.
