The #EndSARS protests of October 2020 and the subsequent Lekki Toll Gate shooting stand as a stark watershed moment, the economic repercussions of which continue to plague Nigeria. What began as a peaceful, youth-led demand for police reform quickly metastasized into a profound expression of pent-up national frustration. Its brutal suppression and the unresolved aftermath have inflicted multi-layered damage on Nigeria’s economy, shattering the already-fragile trust between the state and its citizens. As Cheta Nwanze, Lead Partner at SBM Intelligence, noted, the Lekki event was when “The social contract, the idea that the state holds a monopoly of violence in exchange for the protection of its citizens, was broken.” This broken contract has exerted a corrosive influence on the nation’s political stability and economic prospects.
Immediate Economic Paralysis and Quantifiable Losses
The most immediate effect was the direct economic paralysis. For two weeks, major economic activities in Nigeria’s commercial nerve centers, including the shutdown of its busiest airport, were brought to a standstill. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), representing the voice of the organized private sector, publicly put a staggering figure on this initial disruption: “Over the past twelve days, economic activities have been crippled in most parts of the country… The Nigerian economy has suffered an estimated Seven Hundred Billion Naira [N700 billion] loss in the past twelve days.”
The economic hemorrhage was deepened when the Lagos State government imposed a 24-hour curfew, with Greenwich Merchant Bank estimating it cost the state at least N54 billion each day it lasted. The subsequent violence and looting led to extensive damage to both public and private assets. Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, lamented the scale of the devastation, stating that “The cost of rebuilding the properties destroyed in the state by the miscreants who hijacked the protest is estimated to be up to N1 trillion, a figure that exceeds our revised 2020 budget.”
Specific losses were enormous: the destroyed fleet of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) vehicles resulted in a direct monetary loss of about N3.9 billion, while the closure of the Lekki Toll Gate itself led to a loss of at least N234 million in toll fees. Investment bankers also stated that firms across the country lost about N1 trillion to the disruptions. These costs, both private and public, represented capital that was instantly removed from productive circulation.
The Human Cost to Livelihoods and Small Businesses
While large corporations could absorb some shocks, the impact on Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) which are the backbone of Nigeria’s employment, was devastating. The descent into looting wiped out livelihoods overnight. The human cost was personal and irreparable, as expressed by an anonymous Shoprite Mall worker in Ilorin: “They did not only loot everything and left the store as big as it was empty, they also destroyed everything… The looting might have rendered all of us (the workers) which are about 1000 jobless.” This direct loss of employment and business stock translated into an immediate increase in poverty and despair.
Macroeconomic Shock and the Crisis of Investor Confidence
The protests occurred when the Nigerian economy was already reeling from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, making a recession both “looming and unavoidable.” The civil unrest compounded this decline. In its regional outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected Nigeria’s GDP would contract by 4.3 per cent in 2020. Lagos-based investment banking firm, Cordros Capital, forecasted that the unrest would lead to a tighter GDP contraction of 6.91 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020.
More significantly, the government’s response to the Lekki massacre, characterized by obfuscation and denial, shattered confidence and introduced a new level of political risk. This sentiment was captured by Steve Osho, Co-Managing Partner at Comercio Partners: “The protests have already begun to affect businesses, with implications for GDP growth and profitability. Foreign investors are closely monitoring the situation, evaluating the risk and stability of the Nigerian market.”
This translates into a higher risk premium, driving down foreign direct investment (FDI). Cheta Nwanze argues that the breakdown of the social contract has direct long-term repercussions: “The capital flight and risk premium that have followed are a direct consequence of this inaction,” adding that this poses an “existential threat to commerce itself.” The organization Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria, led by Yemi Adamolekun, echoes this, highlighting that the failure to achieve justice means the “shadow of Lekki will loom large… scaring off investment.”
The Long-Term Economic Blow: The ‘Japa’ Wave and Brain Drain
Perhaps the most profound and enduring economic legacy of EndSARS is the acceleration of the mass exodus of young, skilled Nigerians, a phenomenon colloquially known as the ‘Japa’ (Yoruba for “to run or flee”) wave. For many, the events of October 2020 were a final straw. Aniekan, a Nigerian Data Scientist who joined the ‘Japa’ wave, reflected: “The realization that the lives of everyday Nigerians could be snuffed out simply for demanding a better country transformed migration from an option for a better life into a perceived necessity for survival.”
This migration is not merely a social trend but an economic crisis. The exodus of intellectual capital, or brain drain, has been widely observed in key sectors like healthcare, which is already strained by the departure of medical professionals. Research indicates this mass migration results in the depletion of skilled labour, loss of human capital, reduced productivity, and stagnated innovation. The economic implications include diminished GDP contributions and a diversion of funds towards medical tourism, as the wealthy travel abroad for care.
The unhealed wound of Lekki continues to bleed, poisoning the business environment and leaving Nigeria’s long-term prosperity a hostage to its politics of impunity. The event shattered the trust necessary for a thriving economy, and its scars, quantified in billions, felt in empty workplaces, and seen in departing planes, remain etched into the nation’s economic fabric.
