Rural Nigerians have a more positive view of the economy than their urban counterparts, according to the latest voter sentiment survey by SBM Intelligence.
The report, titled Nigeria 2027: A Narrower Race, found that rural and small town respondents rated the government’s economic performance at an average of 2.44 out of four, compared with 1.87 among urban respondents. The difference was one of the clearest signs of the growing economic divide between Nigerians living in cities and those in rural communities. The survey covered 1,103 eligible voters across 12 states and the Federal Capital Territory, representing all six geopolitical zones.
SBM Intelligence said the survey was conducted through face to face interviews in both urban and rural locations. The stronger rural assessment was not limited to the economy. Rural respondents rated the government higher than urban respondents across all nine areas measured in the survey. The report recorded the widest differences in areas including health, education and the economy. The difference comes as some major economic indicators have improved. Nigeria’s gross domestic product grew by 4.43 percent in the second quarter of 2026, the strongest second quarter growth in five years. The naira also reached a two year high in the official market, while inflation and petrol prices have eased from earlier pressures.
However, the survey suggests that the improvement is not being experienced in the same way across the country. For rural Nigerians, petrol remains a major economic concern. About 32.4 percent of rural respondents identified petrol as a leading national problem, compared with 11.7 percent of urban respondents. In urban areas, insecurity was the most cited concern, at 34.5 percent. This difference reflects the economic realities of both groups. Rural households are more directly affected by the cost of transportation, farming activities and movement of goods, making petrol prices an important part of their daily economic experience. Urban residents, meanwhile, identified insecurity more strongly as a major problem.
The report also found that rural respondents had a more positive view of President Bola Tinubu than those in urban areas. Tinubu recorded a net favourability rating of 22.5 percent among rural respondents, compared with negative 16.4 percent among urban respondents, creating a 38.9 percentage point gap.The economic divide therefore appears alongside a significant political divide. Voting intention in the survey also differed sharply between the two groups. Among urban respondents, the NDC recorded 49.5 percent, compared with 20.9 percent for the APC. In rural areas and small towns, the APC recorded 35.2 percent, while the NDC had 27.6 percent.
SBM Intelligence also identified differences in how both groups receive information. Social media was used by 61.1 percent of urban respondents, compared with 29.6 percent of rural respondents. Radio use was higher among rural respondents at 23.1 percent, compared with 12.9 percent in urban areas. Trust in the electoral process followed a similar pattern. Rural respondents expressed greater confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission, with 66.8 percent expressing confidence, compared with 38.7 percent among urban respondents. Rural respondents also reported a higher intention to vote, with an average turnout score of 8.1 out of 10, compared with 7.65 in urban areas. Despite these differences, the wider national mood has improved.
SBM Intelligence found that the share of respondents who believed Nigeria was moving in the wrong direction fell from 79.5 percent in the first wave to 56.8 percent in the second wave. The report linked the change to easing inflation, a stronger naira and lower petrol prices. However, the improvement has not translated into broad satisfaction. The report described Nigerians as being “less angry without becoming satisfied,” highlighting the gap between improving economic indicators and how people experience the economy.
For businesses and policymakers, the findings show that Nigeria’s economic recovery is being experienced unevenly. Rural households appear to be responding more positively to recent economic changes, while urban Nigerians remain more critical of government performance.The report therefore points to an economy where headline indicators are improving, but the benefits are not being felt equally across locations. How governments address petrol costs, insecurity and other household pressures could remain important to both economic sentiment and voter behaviour as the 2027 elections approach.
