OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to raise crude oil production to 206 000 barrels per day (bpd) based on recent economic news (March 2026), this figure refers specifically to an increase in oil production agreed upon by OPEC+ to manage supply amidst geopolitical tensions from April, pressing ahead with a cautious supply increase even as the Middle East conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran drives fresh uncertainty across energy markets.
The decision followed a meeting of eight “core” OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman which have carried the bulk of the alliance’s voluntary output adjustments in recent years. OPEC+ said the increase represents less than 0.2% of global oil supply, underscoring what analysts describe as a calibrated move to avoid over-tightening the market while monitoring demand and geopolitical risk.
Oil traders have been focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which around one-fifth of global oil flows typically pass. In the past 48 hours, shipping data and company actions signalled rising disruption: multiple tankers anchored outside the strait, while major Japanese shipping firms directed vessels to halt passage or remain in safer waters following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Market anxiety has also been amplified by conflicting signals about navigation safety. A report was published that Tehran said navigation was closed and tanker movements slowed markedly, while a U.S. Navy-linked maritime information centre said there was no official international suspension even as risks surged, including heavier naval activity, congestion at anchorages and higher insurance costs.
The modest April increase also fits into a broader OPEC+ roadmap. The eight producers have been gradually unwinding a tranche of voluntary cuts introduced in 2023, after previously lifting quotas through late 2025 and pausing further increases during early 2026 on seasonal demand weakness, according to reports.
Citing sources familiar with the Sunday meeting as saying OPEC+ debated a range of potential hikes before settling on 206,000 bpd, reflecting the alliance’s balancing act: keeping a lid on inflationary price spikes while avoiding a supply shock if the Hormuz situation worsens.
