Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.31 million barrels per day (bpd) in February 2026, a 10.69% decline from January’s 1.45 million bpd, according to OPEC data.
This shortfall means Nigeria missed its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd, falling short by roughly 190,000 bpd.
The decline in output underscores ongoing disruptions in Nigeria’s oil sector, affecting revenue generation.
Analysts estimate that each 100,000 bpd shortfall can reduce government revenue by billions of Naira monthly, depending on oil prices.
The Federal Government adopted a 2.6 million bpd oil production benchmark for 2026 but will use a more conservative 1.8 million bpd for budgeting.
Challenges and Opportunities
Nigeria’s oil output has long been influenced by infrastructural limitations, security challenges in the Niger Delta, and maintenance shutdowns at key oil fields.
Despite these challenges, the country remains Africa’s leading oil producer, surpassing Libya.
To capitalize on higher oil prices, Nigeria must address its production woes and meet OPEC commitments.
