Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 15.43% in July, but the moderation has yet to translate into broad relief for consumers as food prices accelerated sharply during the month.
The latest Consumer Price Index report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that headline inflation fell by 0.48 percentage points from 15.91% in June.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation also moderated to 1.57% in July from 1.66% in June, indicating that the average level of prices increased at a slower pace than in the previous month.
However, the improvement in the headline figure was accompanied by renewed pressure on food prices, highlighting the uneven nature of Nigeria’s inflation trend.
Food Inflation Climbs to 20.31%
Food inflation rose sharply to 20.31% year-on-year in July from 17.52% in June.
Although the annual rate remained below the 26.20% recorded in July 2025, the month-on-month data showed a significant acceleration in food prices.
Food inflation increased to 5.56% in July from 3.75% in June, representing a 1.82 percentage-point increase.
According to the NBS, the monthly increase was driven by higher average prices of several food items, including crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour.
The latest figures mean that food inflation has accelerated substantially since the beginning of the year, rising from 8.89% in January to 12.21% in February, 14.31% in March, 16.06% in April, 16.96% in May, 17.52% in June and 20.31% in July.
The July figures highlight an important distinction for consumers: a decline in the inflation rate does not mean that prices are falling.
Rather, it means prices are increasing at a slower rate than before.
This distinction is particularly important in food markets, where prices can continue to rise even as the broader inflation rate moderates.
The Consumer Price Index itself increased to 145.3 points in July from 143.0 points in June, according to the NBS data.
For households, this means the cost of goods and services measured by the index continued to increase during the month despite the lower annual inflation rate.
Food Pressure Varies Across Nigeria
The impact was also uneven across states.
Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation rate at 51.36% in July, followed by Katsina at 30.84% and Zamfara at 30.65%.
At the other end of the scale, Borno recorded a negative food inflation rate of 0.31%, while Nasarawa and Kebbi recorded rates of 6.88% and 12.50%, respectively.
On a month-on-month basis, Adamawa recorded the highest food inflation at 17.02%, followed by Lagos at 13.48% and Borno at 13.26%.
Jigawa, Kebbi and Bauchi, meanwhile, recorded monthly declines in food inflation.
The wide differences underline how food-price pressures are being experienced differently across Nigeria, depending on local supply conditions and market dynamics.
There was stronger evidence of moderation outside food and other volatile components.
Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, fell to 14.97% year-on-year in July from 15.92% in June.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation dropped sharply to 0.15% from 1.66% in June.
This suggests that price pressures outside volatile agricultural products and energy eased considerably during the month.
Urban inflation also declined to 16.12% year-on-year in July, while rural inflation stood at 13.77%.
The latest data present a mixed picture for Nigeria’s economy.
The fall in headline inflation and the sharp moderation in core inflation suggest that some of the broader price pressures facing the economy are easing.
But the acceleration in food inflation shows that consumers are not experiencing the improvement uniformly.
For households, particularly those spending heavily on food, the more immediate measure of economic relief is whether the prices of everyday staples begin to stabilise.
That is where the July data provide a less encouraging picture.
Nigeria has therefore entered a period in which the headline inflation number is improving, while food prices remain a significant source of pressure.
For businesses operating across the food supply chain, from farmers and wholesalers to retailers, restaurants and food vendors, the direction of food prices will remain important for costs, pricing decisions and consumer demand.
The challenge for policymakers is now to ensure that the moderation in overall inflation increasingly translates into more stable prices for the goods Nigerians buy most frequently.
For consumers, the message from the July data is straightforward: inflation may be slowing, but the cost of putting food on the table is still rising.
