In a bold move, Dangote Industries plans to expand its current 650,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) refining capacity to about 1.4 million bpd. If successful, it would surpass the 1.36 million bpd refinery in Jamnagar, India, becoming the world’s largest single-site refining facility.
Aliko Dangote disclosed in an interview with S&P Global Commodity Insights that the all-in $20 billion refinery and petrochemicals complex may see a shift in ownership structure. He is preparing to list up to 10 per cent of its shares by next year, signaling a pivot from being entirely Dangote-owned.
While he describes the pursuit of African energy independence as a herculean task, Dangote calls it a labour of love, criticizing the reluctance of many governments on the continent to commit capital to such mega-projects.
“We have to build the refinery again, either here or somewhere else. But really, somewhere else is not possible,” he remarked. He noted that since the necessary infrastructure already exists in Nigeria, reconstructing it elsewhere would be far more costly.
Earlier plans to raise capacity to 700,000 bpd by year’s end have shifted. Now, the target is 1.4 million bpd, though no completion date has been set. Engineers at the Lekki site say that empty plots were deliberately left during the original build to allow such expansion.
To realize this scale, Dangote may construct a second refinery with similar configurations, possibly including a vacuum distillation unit to increase yields of light fractions.The company is also investigating new petrochemical ventures and plans to grow its polypropylene output from 1 million metric tons to 1.5 million.
Dangote rejects the status quo that keeps Africa dependent on imported fuel, arguing that smaller state-led refineries won’t move the needle. “Most African governments will not have the capacity to build a refinery,” he warned. He cited challenges such as interest rates of 20–30 percent, high funding costs, and inadequate infrastructure.
In August, the company secured a pivotal $4 billion financing agreement, alleviating a key hurdle to growth. Dangote is now pursuing strategic partnerships, particularly in the Middle East, to support the expansion. He explained:
“Our business concept is going to change … Now instead of being 100 per cent Dangote-owned, we’ll have other partners.”
Over the next year, the refinery will list “5 per cent to 10 per cent” of its shares on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, depending on market traction. Dangote also left the door open for increased participation by NNPC, which is currently holding 7.2 percent, but says this would come later, once growth momentum is established.
He emphasized the importance of proving performance first: “I want to demonstrate what this refinery can do, then we can sit down and talk.”
