Nigeria recorded a merchandise trade surplus of ₦12.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, more than double the ₦6.26 trillion recorded in the same period of 2025, but the record performance remains heavily exposed to oil prices.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report released on September 7, 2026, said Nigeria’s merchandise trade balance stood at ₦12.60 trillion in Q2 2026, representing a 101.32 per cent increase from the corresponding quarter of 2025.
Total merchandise trade rose to ₦41.44 trillion during the quarter, with exports valued at ₦27.02 trillion and imports at ₦14.42 trillion. The surplus also increased by 66.85 per cent from ₦7.55 trillion recorded in the first quarter of 2026.
The strong performance was driven largely by higher export earnings, particularly from crude oil and other petroleum products.
In its assessment of the NBS data, analysts at Coronation Merchant Bank said the Q2 surplus was the largest in the NBS quarterly trade series. They attributed the strong result largely to a sharp rise in global oil prices following disruptions linked to the conflict involving the United States and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude averaged $99.44 per barrel in Q2 2026, according to the Coronation analysis. The bank noted that the elevated oil price provided stronger dollar inflows and supported Nigeria’s external position.
Nigeria’s export structure also showed some changes during the quarter. NBS data put crude oil exports at ₦12.91 trillion, while non-crude oil exports stood at ₦14.11 trillion. However, this should not be interpreted as a broad shift away from oil because petroleum products form a major part of the non-crude export category.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery also contributed to the changing petroleum trade picture. The refinery increased its crude processing capacity to 700,000 barrels per day in June 2026, above its original 650,000 barrels-per-day nameplate capacity.
The agricultural sector, however, recorded a weaker performance. NBS data showed agricultural exports fell 36.09 per cent year-on-year to ₦802.99 billion in Q2 2026, from ₦1.26 trillion in Q2 2025. Agricultural imports stood at about ₦1.20 trillion, leaving the sector with a deficit of roughly ₦400.78 billion.
Abiodun Olorundero, managing partner at Prasinos Farms, attributed the decline partly to the seasonal nature of major agricultural commodities, particularly cocoa, and lower international cocoa prices.
Coronation Merchant Bank warned that the record surplus may not be sustained if global oil prices moderate. The bank’s analysts said the Q2 performance reflected an unusually high Brent price rather than a durable improvement in Nigeria’s non-oil competitiveness.
They also pointed to the continued demand for imported machinery, chemicals and consumer goods, saying the underlying import bill remains significant and could put pressure on the current account when oil prices fall.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s August 2026 outlook projected Brent crude to average about $85 per barrel in Q3 2026 and $78 in Q4, below the $99.44 average recorded in Q2.
For Nigeria, the record trade surplus provides stronger foreign exchange inflows and a cushion for the naira. But the figures also show why a sustained improvement in agriculture, manufacturing and other non-oil exports remains important if the country is to reduce its exposure to global oil price swings.
