Nigeria generated an estimated N55.5 trillion from crude oil sales in 2025, supported largely by favourable oil prices, even as production remained below both budget and OPEC targets for most of the year.
An analysis of crude output figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and oil price data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria shows that the country produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025. Using an average crude price of $72.08 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,450 to the dollar, estimated gross crude revenue stood at about $38.23 billion, equivalent to N55.5 trillion.
The figure represents an increase from the N50.88 trillion recorded in 2024, when Nigeria produced 408.68 million barrels of crude oil.
Production levels fluctuated throughout 2025, reflecting operational disruptions, outages and gradual recovery in some oilfields. Output opened the year strongly but weakened in several months, particularly in the third quarter, before stabilising towards year-end.
Although Nigeria struggled to meet its 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota, oil prices provided some cushion. Data from the CBN show that Bonny Light crude traded above $80 per barrel in January before easing mid-year and averaging just over $72 per barrel across the period.
Industry analysts noted that the revenue estimate reflects gross earnings, not actual government receipts, as it does not factor in production costs, cost recovery under production-sharing contracts, oil theft, domestic crude supply obligations, or deferred cargo liftings.
In contrast to revenue gains, Nigeria fell short of its 2025 budget oil production target. The government had projected output of 2.1 million barrels per day, but combined crude and condensate production totalled 599.64 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of about 166.9 million barrels for the year.
Experts attributed the production gap to persistent security concerns, policy uncertainty, high operating costs and underinvestment in upstream assets. They stressed that sustained reforms, improved fiscal terms and stronger protection of oil infrastructure would be critical to boosting output and meeting future targets.
Despite the challenges, analysts said the 2025 figures highlight the continued importance of price stability and output recovery to Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.
