For much of the past decade, Nigeria’s energy sector appeared trapped in decline. Despite holding Africa’s largest proven crude oil reserves and vast natural gas resources, the country struggled to attract major upstream investment as global capital shifted toward rival African producers such as Angola, Namibia, and Mozambique.
That trend has now reversed sharply. Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria accounted for just 4% of Africa’s upstream Final Investment Decisions (FIDs), the formal approvals oil companies issue before committing capital to large-scale projects. By 2024 and 2025, however, the country’s share had surged to 40%, marking one of the continent’s most dramatic energy investment recoveries.
The turnaround follows an aggressive reform agenda implemented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, which moved quickly to dismantle long-standing regulatory and fiscal barriers that had discouraged investors for years.
According to Olu Verheijen, Special Adviser to the President on Energy, the administration approached reform as a coordinated economic strategy rather than a series of isolated policy announcements.
“The unprecedented scale and speed of energy reforms and outcomes have made President Bola Ahmed Tinubu the most consequential President for the sector,” Verheijen said during a review of the administration’s energy agenda.
Central to the reforms was a suite of Executive Orders designed to improve regulatory clarity, reduce project costs, and enhance fiscal competitiveness.
The 2023 directive clarifying oversight responsibilities between the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) ended years of bureaucratic overlap that had frustrated investors. Additional measures, including the 2024 Tax Incentives Order and VAT Modification Order, improved project economics by reducing tax inefficiencies and aligning Nigeria’s fiscal terms more closely with competing petroleum jurisdictions.
Industry analysts say Executive Order 9, which strengthened revenue protection while improving regulatory predictability, sent a particularly strong signal to international oil companies that Nigeria was serious about restoring investment confidence.
The impact has been immediate. Nigeria secured several major FIDs in 2024, including the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater development, the $550 million Ubeta gas project, and the $100 million Iseni Gas initiative. In 2025, momentum continued with the $2 billion HI Non-Associated Gas project.
Beyond approved projects, the country’s future investment pipeline now exceeds $50 billion, spanning large offshore and gas developments such as Bonga South West, Zaba Zaba, Owowo, Erha, and Usan.The resurgence comes at a critical time for the global energy industry, as upstream spending becomes increasingly selective amid energy transition pressures and volatile crude prices. Nigeria’s ability to attract long-cycle, capital-intensive projects suggests investors now view the country as a more stable and commercially viable destination.
Production gains are already following investment flows. Nigeria added roughly 400,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2026, lifting output to approximately 1.6 million barrels daily in 2025, the strongest onshore performance in two decades.
The administration now aims to push production toward 3 million barrels per day, supported by improved security coordination, indigenous operator participation, and a more competitive investment framework.
For international investors and energy markets alike, the message is increasingly clear: Nigeria is repositioning itself as Africa’s dominant oil and gas investment destination once again.
