Thirty five percent of Nigerians aged 18 to 24 are unlikely to vote in the 2027 elections, while another 18.2 percent do not have a Permanent Voter’s Card, PVC, putting the country’s youngest voting bloc at the centre of a major participation challenge, a new SBM Intelligence report has found.
The report, titled Nigeria 2027: A Narrower Race, found that the 18 to 24 age group recorded the lowest turnout intention of all age groups surveyed, with an average score of 6.45 out of 10. Only 48.3 percent of respondents in the age group fell within the high intention band, while 35 percent were in the low intention category.
The findings are significant because the group combines low willingness to vote with the highest share of respondents without voter cards. SBM Intelligence described the 18 to 24 cohort as the “largest untapped bloc” and identified registration as a major challenge to reaching them. The report also found that young voters had the most negative view of President Bola Tinubu among the age groups surveyed. However, their dissatisfaction did not translate into strong support for a particular political alternative. SBM Intelligence described the group as “anti-incumbent without being pro-anything”, suggesting that dissatisfaction with the government has not necessarily created a corresponding willingness to participate in the electoral process.
The gap between political sentiment and participation raises questions about what is keeping young Nigerians away from the electoral process.One clear factor identified by the report is registration. The 18.2 percent without PVC represents a section of eligible young voters who are not currently positioned to participate in the election. SBM Intelligence therefore frames youth mobilisation partly as a registration problem rather than simply a question of political interest. However, the report does not establish that the absence of PVC is the sole reason for low turnout intention. Other factors could include political engagement, confidence in the electoral process and the extent to which young voters feel connected to candidates and political parties.The wider figures show that the youth participation gap stands out against relatively strong voting intentions among the broader electorate.
Nationally, respondents recorded an average turnout intention of 7.79 out of 10, while 67.4 percent fell within the high intention band of between eight and 10. Rural respondents also recorded stronger voting intentions than urban respondents, at 8.1 and 7.65 respectively. The 18 to 24 group, by comparison, recorded an average of only 6.45. This means that the challenge is not simply whether young Nigerians have political opinions. The data suggests that a significant share of them may have opinions but are not sufficiently motivated or prepared to convert those views into electoral participation.
The issue could become important as political parties and election stakeholders prepare for 2027. Increasing youth participation would require more than appealing to their political concerns. It would also involve closing the registration gap and addressing the factors that may be weakening their willingness to vote. The report’s findings therefore point to a clear disconnect between youth sentiment and electoral participation. Young Nigerians are showing dissatisfaction with the incumbent, but that dissatisfaction has not translated into strong voting intention.
With 35 percent of respondents aged 18 to 24 indicating low turnout intention and 18.2 percent without PVCs, SBM Intelligence’s findings show that getting young Nigerians into the electoral process could remain one of the key challenges ahead of the 2027 elections.
