Nigeria’s naira could weaken to between ₦3,000 and ₦4,000 per dollar if the Federal Government considers restoring petrol subsidy, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele has warned.
Oyedele gave the warning on Monday, October 19, 2026, during a press briefing at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.
According to reports published by BusinessDay and Punch on October 19, 2026, the minister said even an indication that the government was considering a return to petrol subsidy could trigger an immediate reaction from financial markets.
He warned that reversing the government’s economic reforms could undermine investor confidence, trigger capital flight and increase pressure on the naira.
“If, for any reason, the President were to say we are merely considering the return of fuel subsidy, capital would react immediately,” Oyedele said, according to BusinessDay.
He added that the naira could come under severe pressure, potentially weakening to ₦3,000, ₦3,500 or even ₦4,000 per dollar.
Oyedele explained that foreign investors could withdraw their funds if they perceived a reversal of the government’s reforms. Domestic investors, business owners and wealthy Nigerians could also move their savings into dollars to protect their assets against possible currency depreciation.
Such a shift, he argued, would increase demand for foreign exchange and worsen pressure on the local currency.
A weaker naira could also make imported goods and petroleum products more expensive, potentially undermining the relief the government would seek to provide through a subsidy.
The warning comes as households and businesses continue to contend with elevated petrol and transportation costs following the removal of petrol subsidy in May 2023.
Oyedele has maintained that the government will not return to the former subsidy regime. At the closing briefing of the IMF and World Bank meetings on Saturday, October 17, 2026, he reiterated that the administration would not reverse its fuel pricing and foreign exchange reforms, BusinessDay reported.
The minister has also argued that restoring petrol subsidy would place additional pressure on public finances. In a report published on October 8, 2026, BusinessDay reported his estimate that reinstating the subsidy could cost more than ₦20 trillion annually.
The government has instead pointed to measures intended to cushion the impact of higher fuel prices without restoring a blanket subsidy, including a temporary discount on petrol sold at NNPC retail outlets, with priority for public transport operators.
However, the projected exchange-rate levels remain a warning about a possible outcome, not a statement that the naira has already depreciated to those levels.
The debate highlights the challenge facing policymakers as they seek to sustain economic reforms while addressing the cost-of-living pressures affecting Nigerian households and businesses.
