Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in September 2025, even as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited raised petrol prices across major cities. According to the latest data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the figure represents a 2.8% decline from the 1.43 million bpd recorded in August, marking the country’s first consecutive monthly drop in oil output this year.
Despite the decline, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s leading oil producer, maintaining a narrow lead over Libya, whose production stood at 1.36 million bpd during the same period. OPEC noted that Nigeria’s output continues to fall below its official 1.5 million bpd production quota, underscoring the persistent challenges facing Africa’s largest crude exporter.
The report, based on data obtained from both direct communication with Nigerian authorities and secondary industry sources, attributed the shortfall to a combination of factors, including pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and maintenance issues affecting key production infrastructure. Analysts have also pointed to lingering investment constraints and regulatory bottlenecks as obstacles to achieving higher output, despite ongoing reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
The output decline coincided with a fresh petrol price increase by NNPC Limited, reversing the modest reductions implemented in August. The state-owned oil company adjusted pump prices to ₦992 per litre in Lagos and ₦955 per litre in Abuja, with other cities experiencing similar hikes. The new prices represent an increase of up to ₦127 per litre, reflecting the combined pressures of reduced crude production, foreign exchange volatility, and rising international oil prices.
Industry observers say the price adjustment highlights the continued vulnerability of Nigeria’s downstream market to global oil dynamics and domestic supply constraints. Since the full deregulation of the petrol market in mid-2023, fuel prices have been largely determined by market forces, although NNPC remains the dominant importer due to limited competition and foreign exchange access challenges faced by private operators.
NNPC defended the price review, citing rising import costs and the depreciation of the naira against the US dollar. With crude oil prices averaging around $89 per barrel in September and the exchange rate hovering at about ₦1,550 to $1, the landing cost of imported petrol has surged, making price adjustments inevitable to prevent further financial strain on the company’s operations.
Meanwhile, the drop in oil production raises concerns about government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, as crude exports remain Nigeria’s primary source of external income. The development could also complicate budget implementation, given that the Federal Government’s 2025 fiscal projections were based on a benchmark production level of 1.6 million bpd and an average oil price of $80 per barrel.
Energy analysts warn that if the trend persists, Nigeria may struggle to meet both its fiscal and OPEC obligations. Sustained underperformance could also undermine investor confidence at a time when the government is seeking to attract new capital into the upstream sector through marginal field development and production-sharing contract reforms.
To reverse the decline, experts have called for stronger enforcement of security measures in the Niger Delta, accelerated rehabilitation of oil infrastructure, and consistent policy implementation to encourage private investment in the petroleum value chain.
In the short term, however, consumers are expected to bear the brunt of rising fuel costs, with likely knock-on effects on transportation, food prices, and overall inflation. The combination of declining oil output and surging domestic fuel prices underscores the complex challenges facing Nigeria’s energy sector as it attempts to balance fiscal stability, supply security, and economic sustainability.
