Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production fell to an average of 1.58 million barrels per day (bpd) in September 2025, according to new data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The commission said the drop in production was largely due to industrial action by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and scheduled maintenance activities at two key oil facilities.
The three-day strike, which disrupted operations at several upstream sites, coincided with planned maintenance work that further constrained output across major production terminals. Despite these setbacks, the NUPRC noted that total production in September still reflected a modest 1.61 percent increase year-on-year from the 1.55 million bpd recorded in September 2024 — a sign of gradual recovery from past operational and security challenges.
Crude and Condensate Breakdown
According to the NUPRC’s latest report, Nigeria produced 1.39 million bpd of crude oil and 191,373 bpd of condensates, bringing total output to 1.58 million bpd for the month. While this represents a 3.09 percent decline from August’s 1.63 million bpd, the figure indicates that Nigeria managed to achieve approximately 93 percent of its current OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd.
The report highlighted significant fluctuations during the month, with peak combined production (crude and condensate) reaching 1.81 million bpd and the lowest level recorded at 1.35 million bpd. Such variations, NUPRC said, were primarily the result of intermittent facility shutdowns linked to the strike and the completion of maintenance cycles.
Leading Production Streams
An examination of Nigeria’s top eight crude streams in September showed that Forcados Blend remained the country’s leading output contributor, accounting for 15.86 percent of total production. This was followed by Bonny Light, which represented 13.31 percent, and Qua Iboe at 9.88 percent.
Other key contributors included Escravos Light (8.96 percent), Bonga Crude (6.83 percent), and Agbami Condensate (4.94 percent). Erha Crude and Amenam Blend accounted for 4.55 percent and 4.2 percent respectively. Together, these streams form the backbone of Nigeria’s crude export mix and are central to the country’s foreign exchange earnings.
Industry analysts say the consistent performance of the Forcados and Bonny Light streams, despite recurring disruptions, underscores the resilience of Nigeria’s offshore operations, which have been less exposed to vandalism and crude theft compared to onshore fields.
Labour Dispute and the Dangote Refinery
The PENGASSAN strike, which began on 28 September, followed the dismissal of more than 800 workers by the Dangote Refinery. The union claimed the refinery’s management ignored a court ruling that halted the retrenchment and accused the company of anti-labour practices. The strike quickly spread across Nigeria’s oil and gas installations, affecting both upstream and downstream operations. As production and logistics slowed, the NUPRC reported a noticeable decline in national output.
In response to mounting public concern, the Dangote Group later clarified that the layoffs were part of a “reorganisation exercise” affecting a “small number” of workers. However, pressure from the federal government and key industry stakeholders led to negotiations between PENGASSAN and Dangote Refinery’s management. Following government intervention, an agreement was reached to redeploy many of the affected workers. PENGASSAN subsequently suspended its nationwide strike on 1 October, allowing operations to resume across affected facilities.
Balancing Recovery and Structural Challenges
While September’s output fell short of August levels, the NUPRC emphasised that Nigeria’s oil sector remains on a path of gradual recovery. Persistent challenges, including pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and ageing infrastructure, continue to undermine production stability, but the government has introduced several measures to reverse this trend.
The NUPRC has intensified monitoring and reporting systems to enhance transparency in production data and reduce leakages. In recent months, the commission has also implemented tighter regulatory oversight to ensure compliance with OPEC targets and improve environmental standards in oil-producing areas.
Experts note that the temporary setback caused by the strike is unlikely to derail Nigeria’s broader production outlook for the rest of the year. With several offshore projects nearing completion and the expected resumption of full operations at key terminals, analysts predict that Nigeria could maintain output levels close to its OPEC quota through the final quarter of 2025.
Broader Economic Implications
Oil production remains central to Nigeria’s economic stability, contributing more than 80 percent of foreign exchange earnings and around half of government revenues. Any significant disruption in output or exports, therefore, has direct implications for the federal budget and macroeconomic performance.
In recent months, the federal government has expressed renewed commitment to boosting investment in the upstream sector through policy reforms aimed at improving transparency, investor confidence, and infrastructure reliability. The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), implemented in 2021, continues to serve as the cornerstone of these efforts, streamlining regulatory responsibilities between the NUPRC and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
However, the oil sector’s ongoing labour and operational challenges underscore the delicate balance between promoting industrial harmony, sustaining production targets, and maintaining Nigeria’s role as Africa’s leading crude producer.
Outlook
With PENGASSAN’s strike resolved and key facilities expected to return to full capacity, the NUPRC anticipates that production figures for October will rebound. The commission also reaffirmed its commitment to achieving 100 percent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota and maintaining transparency in production reporting.
“Despite short-term disruptions, Nigeria’s oil industry continues to demonstrate resilience,” said Eniola Akinkoutu, NUPRC’s head of media and strategic communication. “The sector is steadily improving in output efficiency, compliance, and operational discipline.”
As Nigeria looks to stabilise production and address recurring labour and infrastructure issues, the industry’s performance in the coming months will be crucial for supporting fiscal revenues, investor confidence, and broader economic recovery.
