Nigeria has thrown its weight behind the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as uncertainty grows over the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its possible impact on global oil prices.
The development follows rising concerns among government officials and energy experts that the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC could weaken the group’s ability to regulate oil supply and stabilise prices in the international market. The exit, which took effect in May 2026, marks a major shift in global oil politics and raises fears of increased competition among oil-producing nations. Officials in Nigeria have expressed support for OPEC, stressing the importance of maintaining unity within the organisation, especially at a time when the global oil market is already facing volatility.
According to reports, “Nigeria backs OPEC amid UAE exit concerns,” highlighting the country’s stance in preserving the cartel’s influence.Experts warn that the UAE’s departure could reduce OPEC’s control over oil production levels, potentially leading to a drop in crude prices. This is because the UAE, one of the group’s major producers, will now be free to increase output independently, outside the quota system that traditionally helps balance supply and demand. For Nigeria, this situation presents both risks and limited opportunities.
While a weaker OPEC might allow the country to push for higher production quotas, the benefits could be offset by falling oil prices. As one analyst explained, “The exit of the UAE is likely to be more of a disadvantage than an advantage,” noting that lower prices could reduce government revenue despite any increase in output. There are also broader concerns about instability in the global oil market. Analysts believe that the move signals deeper cracks within OPEC, driven by disagreements over production limits and long-term energy strategies.
Countries like the UAE, which have invested heavily in expanding production capacity, may prioritise maximising output rather than adhering to collective supply controls.In addition, geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions, including disruptions around major supply routes, have further heightened fears of price fluctuations. These factors, combined with the UAE’s exit, could make the oil market more unpredictable in the coming months. Industry stakeholders have therefore urged Nigeria to focus on strengthening its domestic oil sector.
This includes improving production efficiency, reducing operational costs, and addressing issues such as oil theft and infrastructure challenges. Without these reforms, the country may struggle to take advantage of any shifts in the global market.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s support for OPEC reflects its reliance on stable oil prices for economic sustainability. As uncertainty lingers, the country faces the urgent task of adapting to a changing energy landscape where collective control may no longer guarantee market stability.
