Nigeria could see its crude oil production rebound to more than two million barrels per day by 2026 if it maintains steady policy reforms and investment momentum, according to a new projection by Renaissance Capital.
The investment bank said the country’s oil output recovery is being fuelled by the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), renewed investor confidence, and a growing participation of indigenous operators in the upstream sector.
Renaissance Capital noted that the rebound in rig activity, alongside new fiscal incentives and structural reforms, has set the stage for sustainable medium-term growth. “If maintained, this upward trend provides a credible pathway for Nigeria to meet or even exceed medium-term production targets,” analysts at the firm wrote.
Reforms Spur Investment and Confidence
Nigeria’s crude production has struggled since peaking at 2.4 million barrels per day in 2005, a decline worsened by years of underinvestment, insecurity in oil-producing regions, and disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Output dropped from 1.74 million barrels per day in 2019 to 1.14 million in 2022.
But Renaissance Capital reports that upstream investment is regaining strength. Active rig counts rose from the low 30s in early 2024 to around 40 by September 2025 — the highest level in several years.
The report credited this momentum to the Petroleum Industry Act, which streamlined Nigeria’s regulatory framework and improved investor confidence through lower tax rates and protection from retroactive fiscal changes.
“The PIA consolidates fragmented laws into a transparent, competitive regime that enhances Nigeria’s attractiveness relative to its African peers,” the report stated.
