Nigeria’s position in the American energy market became increasingly dominant in 2025, with the country accounting for 52.2 per cent of all African crude oil exports to the United States. According to the latest US Census Bureau data released on Saturday, February 28, 2026, Nigeria’s consolidation of its market share occurred despite a general downturn in trans-Atlantic oil trade volumes and a shifting geopolitical landscape.
The structural and economic consequence of this shift is revealed in the contraction of total US-bound African crude. Imports fell from 103.631 million barrels in 2024 to 89.371 million barrels in 2025 a 13.8 per cent decline. While Nigeria’s specific volume also dropped by 8.2 per cent to 46.618 million barrels, its relative importance on the continent surged because other major suppliers, such as Angola and Ghana, experienced far steeper declines in their export volumes.
Analytically, the financial value of these exports suffered from broader market volatility. The C.I.F. (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) value of Nigeria’s crude fell by 20.5 per cent to $3.545 billion. This decline reflects not only lower volumes but also the pricing pressures of 2025. Interestingly, the gap between customs value (the price paid at export) and C.I.F. value remained stable, suggesting that while the “landed” cost at US ports dropped, the underlying logistics and freight expenses did not undergo radical disruption during the period.
The impact on “Trade Policy and Protectionism” is a vital dimension of these figures. The trade outcomes unfolded under the administration of US President Donald Trump, whose “reciprocal” tariff regime took effect on August 7, 2025. While crude oil has largely been exempted from the executive order that raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 to 15 per cent, the policy has cast a shadow over non-oil trade. This protectionist shift has created a climate of uncertainty for American importers, though crude remains the primary bridge between the two economies.
Furthermore, domestic experts are recalibrating the importance of this relationship. Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, downplayed the strategic threat of these tariffs. He argued that Nigeria’s trade profile with the US is too narrow dominated almost exclusively by crude and fertilizers to cause a fundamental economic shock. According to Yusuf, the more critical barrier to trade isn’t the 1 per cent tariff hike, but rather Washington’s restrictive visa policy, which limits the business travel and investment flows necessary to diversify Nigeria’s export base.
The long-term outlook for Nigeria-US trade suggests a continued reliance on “energy-first” diplomacy. While Libya was the only major African producer to see a marginal volume increase in 2025, Nigeria’s ability to maintain over half of the continent’s share underscores its resilience as a preferred supplier for US refineries. However, as the Trump administration continues to roll out visa restrictions and travel bans, the potential for non-oil growth remains stifled, leaving the bilateral relationship heavily dependent on the volatile fluctuations of the global oil market.
