The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has cautioned that Nigeria must generate at least 27.3 million new formal jobs between 2025 and 2030 to maintain an unemployment rate of 4.3 per cent and avert a potential employment crisis.
In its latest report, From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria, the NESG highlighted that achieving this goal would require an annual average of 4.55 million net new formal jobs. The group described this target as both “ambitious and indispensable” for sustaining inclusive economic growth, absorbing new entrants into the labour market, and gradually transitioning workers from low-productivity, informal employment.
“Our estimates show that to maintain an unemployment rate at 4.3% from 2025 to 2030, Nigeria must create 27.3 million jobs, i.e., an annual average of 4.55 million net formal jobs. Achieving this will be crucial to absorbing new entrants into the labour market and gradually transitioning workers currently engaged in low-productivity, informal jobs,” the report stated.
NESG identified four key sectors expected to drive this job creation: manufacturing, construction, information and communications technology (ICT), and professional services. Together, these sectors have the potential to absorb millions of workers currently engaged in informal, low-productivity activities. According to the report, these sectors are projected to contribute approximately 35 per cent (9.7 million) of the new formal jobs, with manufacturing alone accounting for 21 per cent of the total new employment during the period. Within manufacturing, agro-processing is expected to play a pivotal role in creating sustainable employment opportunities.
The group emphasised that sustainable job creation in Nigeria is contingent on addressing long-standing productivity challenges and removing structural barriers that have historically constrained private sector growth. Without immediate and coordinated action, NESG warned that the economy could face rising unemployment, worsening poverty levels, and declining social cohesion.
“To create these jobs, Nigeria must address the problems of low productivity and weak private sector growth in a coordinated and sustained manner. More urgent than ever, Nigeria needs a Jobs and Productivity Agenda to create decent jobs and raise productivity across the economy,” NESG said. The group stressed that the success of this agenda depends on collaboration among stakeholders, robust data infrastructure, continuous monitoring and evaluation, and a firm commitment from the government to implement key reforms.
Nigeria’s labour market is under mounting pressure from a rapidly growing youth population, with many young people entering the job market annually without formal employment opportunities. The informal sector currently absorbs a large share of employment but contributes minimally to productivity growth or government revenues, highlighting the need for formal job creation to drive inclusive economic development.
To complement the Jobs and Productivity Agenda, the NESG urged the federal government to implement a National Skills Development Programme, emphasising technical and vocational skills, as well as digital and soft skills that are critical for modern industries. The group also recommended establishing a National Productivity Fund to support firms in scaling operations, investing in workforce development, and enhancing overall productivity.
Historically, Nigeria’s employment challenges have been shaped by rapid population growth, structural deficiencies in the economy, and a predominance of informal sector employment. The informal economy, while providing subsistence and income for millions, often fails to deliver social protections, consistent wages, or meaningful contributions to productivity and tax revenues. As a result, policy interventions that link job creation with productivity enhancement are crucial to ensure sustainable economic transformation.
The NESG report underscores that the creation of 27.3 million formal jobs over five years is an ambitious target but necessary to stabilise the labour market and secure Nigeria’s economic future. Achieving it requires a dual approach: scaling productive sectors capable of absorbing labour while simultaneously implementing reforms to boost efficiency, competitiveness, and private sector growth. In this context, policy initiatives aimed at improving the business environment, facilitating access to finance, modernising industrial processes, and promoting digital adoption are critical.
The call for a coordinated Jobs and Productivity Agenda also aligns with broader national and global priorities on employment, youth empowerment, and economic inclusion. By linking job creation with productivity improvements, Nigeria can transform informal sector employment into more sustainable, formalised work, thereby increasing tax contributions, improving social protections, and enhancing economic resilience.
The NESG report presents a stark reminder of Nigeria’s employment challenge: without creating millions of formal, productive jobs over the next five years, the country risks a deepening employment crisis that could exacerbate social inequality and economic instability. The group’s recommendations, focused on skills development, productivity enhancement, and sectoral growth, offer a roadmap for coordinated action that, if implemented effectively, could unlock Nigeria’s potential for sustainable and inclusive economic transformation.
