Farmers in Ivory Coast are struggling to access fertilisers, raising serious concerns about future cocoa output in the world’s largest producer of the key chocolate ingredient. A survey by HSAT across major cocoa‑growing regions found that 73 per cent of farmers have not purchased any fertiliser for the next two production cycles. Only a quarter secured some supply, while a mere two per cent said they had enough to maintain healthy yields.
The crisis is driven by two converging forces. Farmers’ incomes have dropped sharply after cocoa prices fell more than 70 per cent from their late‑2024 peak, making fertiliser unaffordable. At the same time, global fertiliser prices have surged due to supply disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which has affected shipping routes and raised the cost of key inputs such as potash and urea.
Experts warn that poor tree health caused by under‑fertilisation, combined with the risk of an El Niño weather pattern, could further reduce yields. HSAT projects a near five per cent drop in output this year, with more severe declines expected by 2027 if the current conditions persist. For Ivory Coast, which accounts for roughly 40 per cent of global cocoa production, any significant fall in output would have major implications for export earnings, farmer livelihoods and the global chocolate supply chain.
From an economic perspective, the fertiliser crisis highlights the vulnerability of commodity‑dependent economies to price volatility and external shocks. The boom in cocoa prices in 2024 gave farmers a temporary windfall, but without structural investments in storage, credit and input subsidies, the subsequent bust has left them exposed. The government has few tools to cushion the blow: subsidising fertiliser would strain public finances, while allowing prices to fall further would deepen farmer poverty.
The longer‑term risk is that farmers abandon cocoa altogether or reduce maintenance, leading to lower productivity for years. This would affect not only Ivory Coast’s balance of trade but also global cocoa processors and chocolate makers, who would face higher costs and supply uncertainty. The situation underscores the need for more stable mechanisms to smooth commodity cycles and support smallholders through price crashes.
