The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth to 3.9 percent in 2025 and 4.2 percent in 2026.
Previously, in its July 2025 forecast, the IMF had estimated Nigeria’s growth at 3.4 percent, meaning this new estimate reflects a 0.5-point upward revision. The improved outlook was unveiled during the release of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2025 at the joint World Bank–IMF meetings in Washington, D.C.
The IMF cites several driving forces behind the upgrade: increased oil production, growing investor confidence, and a more supportive fiscal policy set for 2026. These factors, combined, enhance optimism about Nigeria’s reform-based recovery.
In a broader context, the IMF’s updated forecast puts Nigeria ahead of South Africa’s growth estimates, though still slightly under the overall Sub‑Saharan African average. Notably, the IMF raised South Africa’s 2025 projection modestly from 1.0 percent to 1.1 percent, while trimming its 2026 forecast from 1.3 percent to 1.2 percent. Meanwhile, the Sub‑Saharan region’s growth outlook was adjusted upward to 4.1 percent in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026.
On the global front, the IMF forecasts growth rates of 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, which is slightly ahead of its July projections but still reflecting headwinds from uncertainty and protectionist policies. Inflation is expected to ease to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.7 percent in 2026, while global trade volume may expand by an average of 2.9 percent over the period.
Importantly, in its July consultation, the IMF had backed the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight monetary approach as a key tool for containing inflation and bolstering macro stability.
