Global supply-chain snarls are set to keep the world’s airlines scrambling for aircraft for years to come, according to new warnings by International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The aviation industry has been battered by production bottlenecks and component-shortages, problems that have lingered since the COVID-19 disruption. As a result, delivery of new jets everywhere has slowed sharply, pushing up costs and forcing carriers to rely on old, inefficient planes.
IATA notes that the current backlog of undelivered aircraft has ballooned to roughly 17,000, a figure which now represents nearly 60 % of the entire active global fleet. Deliveries have been short by at least 5,300 aircraft compared with what the airlines had ordered.
With such a backlog and supply-chain stress, normalization of aircraft production and supply is unlikely before 2031–2034. That means almost a decade or more of strained fleet renewal, older fleets, higher operating costs, and reduced growth potential for airlines worldwide.
The fallout is already visible: airlines are flying aircraft far older than planned, maintenance bills are rising, fuel efficiency is slipping, and leasing costs are climbing steeply. The recent joint report by IATA and consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that these supply-chain problems could cost the airline industry over US$11 billion in 2025 alone. The burdens include higher fuel expenses (due to inefficient aircraft), elevated maintenance and leasing costs, and more capital tied up in spare parts and inventory.
Moreover, longer wait times for aircraft and engine deliveries have forced many carriers to postpone replacing older models, slowing down modernization, limiting capacity expansion, and hurting profitability over the medium term.
“Airlines are feeling the impact of the aerospace supply chain challenges across their business. Higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability gains, and increased reliance on suboptimal aircraft types are the most obvious challenges.”– IATA Director General
With aircraft deliveries stalled, airlines face mounting cash-flow pressure from soaring fuel, maintenance and leasing expenses. The supply crunch raises ticket prices, squeezes profit margins, and delays route expansion, curbing growth for carriers and dragging on global aviation-driven economic activity, including tourism, trade, and connected industries.
