Fitch Ratings has upgraded Côte d’Ivoire’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-’, citing robust economic growth prospects, improved political stability and continued sound macroeconomic management by the authorities.
In a statement, the ratings agency said the upgrade reflects greater confidence in policy continuity following the October presidential election, which was marked by only limited unrest. Fitch noted that the re-election of President Alassane Ouattara has reinforced political stability and reduced uncertainty around economic policymaking in one of West Africa’s fastest-growing economies.
Côte d’Ivoire is expected to maintain strong growth momentum over the medium term. Fitch forecasts real gross domestic product growth of 6.4 percent in 2025, with output expanding further to around 6.6 percent by 2027. Growth is being driven by rising investment and output in the oil, gas and mining sectors, alongside resilient agricultural production, which remains a key pillar of the economy.
Recent offshore hydrocarbon discoveries and expanding production capacity are expected to strengthen export revenues and support fiscal performance. At the same time, the country’s diversified agricultural base, which includes cocoa, coffee, cashew nuts and rubber, continues to underpin rural incomes and domestic demand, even amid global price volatility.
Fitch also pointed to improving public finances as a key factor behind the rating upgrade. Government debt is projected to decline steadily, falling to about 56.1 percent of GDP by 2027, down from higher levels seen earlier in the decade. The agency said this trajectory reflects a combination of strong nominal GDP growth, prudent fiscal management and continued access to concessional and semi-concessional financing.
Inflation is expected to remain subdued, staying below 2 percent over the forecast period. Fitch attributed this to Côte d’Ivoire’s membership of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which provides a stable monetary framework anchored by the CFA franc’s peg to the euro. Low and stable inflation supports household purchasing power and helps contain social pressures, particularly at a time of elevated global food and energy prices.
The upgrade comes as the government moves to stabilise the cocoa sector, which has faced significant strain following a sharp fall in global prices. Cocoa accounts for roughly 40 percent of Côte d’Ivoire’s export earnings, making the economy highly sensitive to developments in the sector. To prevent financial stress from spreading through the supply chain, the authorities have authorised the cocoa regulator, Le Conseil Café-Cacao, to purchase around 200,000 tonnes of cocoa beans from struggling exporters.
The intervention is aimed at preventing defaults on forward contracts and safeguarding the financial health of exporters and cooperatives. Fitch said the move highlights the government’s willingness and capacity to take targeted measures to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability in the face of sector-specific shocks.
Beyond cocoa, Fitch emphasised that Côte d’Ivoire’s increasingly diversified export base provides an important buffer against external volatility. Rising oil and gas output, combined with growth in mining and manufacturing, has reduced the country’s dependence on any single commodity. Strong engagement with the International Monetary Fund has also supported policy credibility, fiscal discipline and reform momentum, further strengthening investor confidence.
However, Fitch cautioned that risks remain. Regional security challenges continue to pose a potential threat, particularly given the spread of Islamist insurgency across parts of the Sahel. While Côte d’Ivoire has so far avoided major spillovers, heightened security risks could weigh on investor sentiment and require higher public spending on defence and internal security.
Nevertheless, the ratings agency concluded that Côte d’Ivoire’s strong growth outlook, improving debt dynamics and track record of prudent macroeconomic management outweigh these risks for now. The upgrade to ‘BB’ places the country closer to investment-grade territory and could help lower borrowing costs over time, supporting further investment in infrastructure, energy and industrial development.
For the government, the challenge will be to sustain high growth while managing commodity risks, maintaining social stability and continuing reforms that broaden the economic base. Fitch’s decision suggests that, despite regional uncertainties, Côte d’Ivoire is emerging as one of the more resilient and stable economies in sub-Saharan Africa.
