Analysts at Cordros Securities have raised their year-end target price for MTN Nigeria Communications Plc from ₦588.74 to ₦616.07 per share, signaling a 4.6% upside, according to a report published on November 20, 2025. The revision reflects renewed investor confidence following MTN’s robust third-quarter performance.
Cordros reaffirmed its BUY rating, noting that the new target implies a potential gain of 29.7% from the stock’s closing price of ₦475.00 as of November 18.
The brokerage also provided fresh guidance on MTN’s dividend policy. In the report, Cordros highlighted MTN Nigeria’s interim dividend of ₦5.00 per share, equating to a 3.3% yield, and projected a total 2025 dividend per share of ₦15.50.
Cordros attributes its positive outlook to MTN’s strong nine-month performance, driven primarily by surging demand for data services. The company recorded 57.5% revenue growth, an expansion in its EBITDA margin by 15.1 percentage points to 51.4%, and earnings per share of ₦35.77.
Looking ahead, Cordros expects further improvements in mtN’s financials. Their forecasts include a 70.7% decline in net finance costs (to ₦389.84 billion), based on a significant rise in finance income.
The analysts also flagged continued growth in MTN’s operating profitability, with EBITDA margin estimated to hit 51.6%. On the top line, they anticipate that data revenue will remain the major growth engine, projecting a 71.2% year-on-year jump, while voice revenue is expected to increase by 52.5%.
Cordros’ model further assumes increasing customer monetization: average revenue per user (ARPU) is forecast to rise 45.0% to ₦5,053.55, and the subscriber base is expected to grow 7.1% to 86.61 million.
A potentially favorable macro factor is a net foreign-exchange gain of ₦84.53 billion, which Cordros expects to reverse last year’s FX losses.
On the profit front, Cordros projects full-year EPS of ₦53.31 for 2025, turning around sharply from a loss of ₦19.10 per share in 2024.
Financially, MTN Nigeria has staged a dramatic recovery. In the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company posted a pre-tax profit of ₦1.12 trillion, resuscitating its fortunes after reporting a ₦713.6 billion loss in the same period the prior year.
Third-quarter performance was especially strong: MTN delivered a ₦504.2 billion pre-tax profit, up sharply from ₦37.7 billion in Q3 2024. Total revenue for the period reached ₦3.73 trillion, driven largely by data services (₦1.97 trillion, +73% YoY) and voice services (₦1.19 trillion, +48%).
The upgrade by Cordros comes amid broader market optimism: stronger corporate earnings, stabilizing macro conditions, and reduced debt costs are fueling investor confidence. As MTN deepens its penetration in Nigeria’s digital economy, the telecom giant’s rebound could boost capital inflows and underpin broader equities market growth.
