Nigeria’s state-owned oil company, NNPC Ltd, has announced a net profit of ₦5.4 trillion for 2024, representing a 64 percent increase from the previous year. The result, released on Monday, marks the company’s strongest financial performance since it became a commercial entity under the Petroleum Industry Act and reflects its ongoing internal restructuring and broader ambitions for the country’s energy sector.
Group Chief Executive Bashir Bayo Ojulari said the profit surge demonstrates the impact of cost discipline, operational reforms and improvements in some upstream assets. He added that NNPC is now positioning itself to play a more central role in driving long-term energy investment in Nigeria, with the company aiming to mobilise up to $60 billion in capital by the end of the decade. According to the company’s plan, this investment pipeline will be directed towards upstream oil developments, domestic refining projects and major gas infrastructure.
NNPC’s targets are ambitious. The company intends to raise crude oil output from the current level of about 1.5 million barrels per day to 2 million barrels per day by 2027, and later to 3 million barrels per day by 2030. It also plans to increase daily gas production to 12 billion cubic feet over the same period, a move it says will strengthen Nigeria’s ability to meet both domestic energy needs and export commitments.
Nigeria has struggled for years with falling production, caused by crude theft, pipeline vandalism and insufficient investment in ageing infrastructure. The country has also repeatedly missed its OPEC+ production quotas, contributing to volatile government revenue and persistent pressure on foreign exchange earnings. Analysts believe that reversing these trends will be central to any success NNPC hopes to achieve.
Energy analysts note that the company’s new targets will require significant improvements in security along critical oil corridors, stronger partnerships with international oil companies and policy consistency that encourages long-term capital commitments. They also warn that unlocking foreign investment will depend on investor confidence in Nigeria’s regulatory environment, fiscal stability and the government’s ability to address entrenched operational risks in the Niger Delta.
The economic implications of NNPC’s performance are notable. A stronger balance sheet positions the company to contribute more reliably to federal revenue, particularly through dividends and taxes, at a time when Nigeria is trying to stabilise its public finances. Higher oil production, if achieved, would support government revenue, ease foreign exchange shortages and strengthen the naira by improving dollar inflows. Increased gas production could accelerate industrial output, support power generation and reduce the cost of energy for manufacturers.
However, the benefits are not guaranteed. Production gains depend heavily on security improvements, and persistent losses from crude theft could undermine the company’s financial progress. In addition, Nigeria’s refining sector remains fragile, with domestic fuel supply still largely dependent on imports despite ongoing efforts to rehabilitate state-owned refineries and the gradual integration of private refining capacity.
NNPC’s growing profitability has also drawn renewed attention from lawmakers. The Auditor-General recently flagged concerns over the company’s compliance with some fiscal obligations, reflecting the continued scrutiny surrounding NNPC’s transparency and financial governance. As the company edges closer to a future public share offering, legislators and civil society groups are expected to intensify calls for greater disclosure, more robust oversight and clearer delineation between commercial operations and state interests.
Despite these concerns, NNPC insists that it is on a steady path to becoming a globally competitive national oil company capable of attracting large-scale investment and sustaining long-term profitability. Ojulari said the progress recorded so far is part of a broader transformation programme meant to modernise the organisation, reduce leakages and align its operations with international best practices.
For now, the company’s record profit provides a measure of optimism for an economy that remains under pressure from inflation, currency volatility and weak industrial productivity. Whether NNPC can convert its financial gains into sustained investment, stronger production and broader macroeconomic stability will become clearer as it attempts to execute its long-term expansion plan over the coming years.
