The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has issued a stark warning about the potential economic fallout from the recent military threat made by Donald Trump against Nigeria. According to the CPPE, even a verbal threat from a major global power may carry serious repercussions for Nigeria’s economy, investor confidence and global standing.
The CPPE notes that because the comment comes from such a powerful figure, its consequences magnify regardless of its factual accuracy. While the claim is based on what the CPPE calls ‘incomplete intelligence and misjudged assumptions,’ its mere existence “has already generated economic, diplomatic, and perceptional consequences for Nigeria.”
“Regardless of its inaccuracy, the pronouncement has already generated economic, diplomatic, and perceptional consequences for Nigeria,” said CPPE CEO Muda Yusuf. “Such rhetoric risks undermining Nigeria’s image as a stable investment destination, unsettling financial markets, and eroding both domestic and international investor confidence.”
According to the policy brief, the potential fallout covers several key areas:
• A drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) and venture-capital activity, as investors reassess risk and shift funds to other markets.
• Portfolio outflows and capital flight: even if no military action takes place, the fear of geopolitical risk can drive money out of the country.
• Weakening of the Nigerian currency (the naira) and increased pressure on sovereign bond yields, as investors demand higher risk premiums.
•Market instability: stock market valuations could suffer, inflation may rise, foreign reserves could be drained, and macro-economic indicators may come under strain due to higher borrowing costs and reduced inflows.
In essence, the CPPE argues that even a threat, rather than actual military action, diminishes Nigeria’s perception as a safe and stable investment destination. That changes the equation for foreign investors, lenders and local businesses alike.
The organisation also points out that Nigeria’s security challenges are complex, multifaceted, and asymmetrical, involving insurgency, farmer-herder clashes, communal conflicts, kidnapping and banditry. These issues cut across ethnic and religious lines. The CPPE emphasises that these security problems are driven by socio-economic and governance factors, rather than being government-engineered.
In light of the risks, the CPPE urges the Nigerian government to respond with diplomacy, cooperation and clear communication rather than confrontation. Key recommendations include high-level engagements with the United States, reinforcing internal security architecture, strengthening governance and transparency, and deploying strategic communications to reassure investors.
“The constructive path forward lies in diplomacy, partnership, and shared commitment to peace, development, and mutual respect for sovereignty,” Yusuf said. “Unilateral military action would not only destabilise Nigeria’s economy but also threaten regional stability and worsen humanitarian conditions,” the CPPE concluded.
