Motorists may see modest reductions in petrol prices as the latest cut in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s ex-gantry price filters through to filling stations, but pump prices are likely to remain above ₦1,300 per litre amid elevated crude oil prices.
Dangote Refinery cut its Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) ex-gantry price by ₦25 to ₦1,325 per litre, following an earlier increase to ₦1,350 per litre. The reduction has already prompted some marketers to lower pump prices.
Legit.ng reported on September 28, 2026, that NNPCL reduced petrol prices at selected stations in Lagos and Abuja following the Dangote price cut. Some NNPCL stations in Lagos reduced their price from ₦1,385 to ₦1,370 per litre, while selected Abuja stations cut prices from ₦1,430 to ₦1,405 per litre.
The price reductions have not been uniform across the country. Legit.ng reported that several NNPCL outlets had yet to implement the new rates, reflecting differences in supply costs, location and the timing of adjustments by individual stations.
The growing influence of Dangote Refinery on the domestic fuel market means changes in its wholesale price are increasingly important for motorists. Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), released on September 24, showed that the refinery supplied about 35.87 million litres of petrol per day to the domestic market in August.
The Punch reported on September 24, citing the NMDPRA’s August 2026 State of the Midstream and Downstream Sector factsheet, that Dangote accounted for about 71% of Nigeria’s total petrol receipts during the month. Domestic PMS receipts rose 39% to 35.9 million litres per day, while petrol imports fell 26% to 14.6 million litres per day.
The latest movement in international crude prices, however, could limit the extent of any further reduction at the pump.
Reuters reported on September 29 that Brent crude had risen 0.6% to $105.91 per barrel as continued concerns over Middle East supply disruptions outweighed signs of recovering crude exports from the region. Reuters said the ongoing US-Iran conflict and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz were contributing to the volatility in the oil market.
That creates a mixed outlook for Nigerian motorists. Lower domestic wholesale prices could push some filling stations to reduce pump prices, while elevated crude prices and continuing international supply concerns could keep the underlying cost of petrol relatively high.
Regional differences are also expected to remain because the cost of moving petrol from coastal supply points to distant markets varies across states. Stations also adjust prices at different times depending on when they receive new supplies and their operating margins.
For motorists, the immediate outlook is therefore for modest and uneven price relief rather than a nationwide return to sub-₦1,300 petrol. Further reductions would depend on whether Dangote and other suppliers continue cutting wholesale prices and whether the international crude market begins to ease.
