Nigeria’s cocoa export earnings have surged, but the numbers mask a deeper weakness in the sector: the country has yet to achieve a comparable increase in physical production. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria exported agricultural goods worth ₦1.70 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, with standard and superior-quality cocoa beans and cocoa butter accounting for about ₦1.31 trillion. That was a sharp increase from the corresponding period of 2024, reflecting the extraordinary rise in global cocoa prices rather than a fundamental transformation in farm productivity.
The boom followed a dramatic rally in international cocoa prices. Reuters reported in May 2025 that prices had climbed from about $2,500 per tonne in 2022 to nearly $11,000 by late 2024, after poor harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, the world’s two biggest producers. Disease, ageing trees and difficult weather conditions reduced supplies and pushed buyers towards other origins, including Nigeria.
Nigeria’s production base, however, has not expanded at the same pace. A 2026 Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security investment plan said output had fallen from more than 302,000 tonnes in 2015 to about 280,000 tonnes in 2021, after reaching 357,000 tonnes in 2020. The ministry linked the weakness to ageing plantations, disease, climate pressures and other structural problems.
The revenue surge continued into 2026. NBS data showed that superior-quality cocoa beans alone generated ₦596.9 billion in Nigeria’s agricultural exports in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for about 51 per cent of agricultural export earnings.
But the global price boom has now cooled. Cocoa fell to about $5,915 per tonne on 8 September 2026, according to market data, well below its December 2024 record of about $12,906. Meanwhile, Nigerian farmers have also experienced a steep correction. A March 2026 report by Nairametrics quoted an Ondo farmer who said cocoa had fallen from ₦14,500 per kilogramme in January 2025 to about ₦2,500, with some transactions as low as ₦2,000.
The problem extends beyond prices. The Bank of Industry said in July 2026 that Nigeria produces more than 300,000 tonnes annually but grinds only about 50,000 tonnes domestically. This leaves much of the value chain outside the country and limits the benefit of higher cocoa earnings.
The Federal Government is attempting to change that. At the Cocoa Value Addition Summit in Abuja on 14 July 2026, President Bola Tinubu, represented by Agriculture Minister Abubakar Kyari, called for greater domestic processing. The government said national grinding capacity had exceeded 120,000 tonnes annually.
The government has also begun tackling the production problem. On 23 July 2026, the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria announced the rollout of one million improved cocoa seedlings intended to replace ageing plantations and raise productivity.
Nigeria’s cocoa story, therefore, is less a story of a production boom than of a price windfall. The challenge now is turning temporary export gains into lasting productivity, processing capacity and stronger farmer incomes before the next global price cycle exposes the same weaknesses again.
