Ivory Coast’s cocoa processing volumes fell sharply by 38.6 per cent year on year in September 2025, reflecting the combined impact of dwindling mid-crop supplies, lower bean quality, and disruptions in factory operations. The latest figures, released by the Groupement Professionnel des Exportateurs de Cacao et de Café de Côte d’Ivoire (GEPEX) — the Professional Association of Cocoa and Coffee Exporters of Ivory Coast, underline mounting strain on the world’s leading cocoa producer as climate challenges and logistical constraints ripple through the global chocolate supply chain.
According to GEPEX, local processors handled just 33,764 tonnes of beans in September, compared with more than 55,000 tonnes during the same period last year. Since the start of the 2024/25 season in October, cumulative grindings have reached 588,194 tonnes, representing a 9.9 per cent decline from the corresponding period a year earlier. GEPEX’s data covers six of the country’s major processors, including Barry Callebaut, Olam, and Cargill — all key players that dominate the domestic grinding market.
The slowdown in grinding activity is the latest signal of stress in Ivory Coast’s cocoa sector, which typically accounts for around 45 per cent of global output. The country’s grinding capacity — estimated at about 750,000 tonnes annually — has long been seen as a pillar of its strategy to capture more value from the global cocoa trade by processing more beans locally rather than exporting them raw. Yet, this strategy is now being tested by supply shortages, deteriorating bean quality, and rising production costs.
Industry analysts say the weaker performance in September mirrors broader challenges facing the 2024 mid-crop, which has been hit by erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells across the cocoa belt. “The beans coming in are smaller and less consistent, and many grinders are struggling to maintain throughput,” said a cocoa trader in Abidjan. “Even when beans are available, high moisture levels and transport delays are causing further bottlenecks.”
The grinding decline also comes against the backdrop of global cocoa prices hovering near multi-decade highs. Benchmark futures in London and New York have surged throughout 2024 and 2025, driven by consecutive poor harvests in West Africa and rising demand for cocoa butter and powder. While the price rally has boosted export revenues for producing countries, it has also tightened liquidity for domestic processors, who must pay more for raw beans while contending with elevated energy and maintenance costs.
In Ivory Coast, smaller grinders — especially those without strong foreign backing — have found it increasingly difficult to access sufficient financing to maintain operations. Many have scaled back activity or temporarily halted production. Meanwhile, major international firms have redirected part of their processing capacity to other regions, including Europe and Asia, where logistics and power costs are more predictable.
For the Ivorian government, the downturn poses a risk to both export earnings and employment in the processing industry, which has expanded steadily over the past decade. Local grinding is a cornerstone of Abidjan’s industrialisation drive, aimed at ensuring that a larger share of the country’s cocoa value chain remains within its borders. In recent years, the government has offered tax incentives and infrastructure support to attract investment into cocoa processing plants, and has partnered with development finance institutions to promote sustainability and traceability in the sector.
However, those gains are now under threat. The twin pressures of climate volatility and infrastructure bottlenecks — particularly poor rural road conditions and congestion at the port of Abidjan — have slowed bean deliveries to factories. Some exporters also report rising difficulty in securing reliable gas supplies for power generation, further curbing production capacity.
The September figures, analysts warn, may foreshadow deeper declines in the coming months unless weather conditions improve and bean flows stabilise. “We could see another weak quarter ahead if the next main crop doesn’t deliver,” said one European cocoa analyst. “That would add further pressure on global supply at a time when chocolate manufacturers are already facing tight margins and consumers are pushing back on higher retail prices.”
Despite the current headwinds, industry players say the fundamentals of Ivory Coast’s cocoa sector remain strong in the medium term, underpinned by a large installed processing base and continuing foreign investment. Companies such as Barry Callebaut and Cargill have reaffirmed their long-term commitment to the country, citing ongoing projects to upgrade local plants and expand sustainable sourcing programmes.
Still, the September data underscores how vulnerable even the most established producers have become to the structural challenges confronting West African agriculture. As climate variability reshapes crop patterns and global supply chains remain fragile, the world’s biggest cocoa producer faces the task of balancing short-term stability with long-term resilience.
For now, the message from Abidjan’s grinding floors is clear: the beans are fewer, the costs are higher, and the pressure on Africa’s cocoa heartland is only deepening.
