The ongoing United States-Israel-Iran war, which began on February 28, 2026, has triggered what the International Energy Agency describes as an energy shock “unprecedented in its immediate scope.” The disruption to global oil and gas supplies exceeds the combined impact of the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, according to the IEA’s early assessment, with Brent crude surging above $120 per barrel and global petrol prices rising by over 50 percent in a matter of weeks .
At the centre of this global energy shock is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20 to 30 percent of the world’s oil and 20 percent of its liquefied natural gas passes. Under normal conditions, 130 to 150 ships transited the strait daily, including about 100 oil tankers carrying petroleum products and LNG. By March 2026, traffic through the waterway had dropped by 95 percent, effectively cutting off exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar . The disruption is estimated to have removed between 12 million and 15 million barrels per day from global supply, representing up to 15 percent of world output and marking the largest interruption on record .
The ripple effects extend far beyond crude oil markets. Fertiliser supplies from the Gulf have been disrupted, pushing up agricultural input costs at a critical point in the planting cycle. The International Monetary Fund has warned that “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth,” with the war threatening to reverse recent progress in bringing inflation under control . The Fund noted that low-income countries are especially vulnerable, as food accounts for about 36 percent of household consumption in poorer nations compared with just 9 percent in advanced economies .
African economies, heavily reliant on fuel imports from the Gulf, have been scrambling to manage the shock. Several countries have raised fuel prices, introduced subsidies, or implemented emergency import arrangements. South Africa increased petrol by 3.06 rand per litre and diesel by up to 7.51 rand per litre on April 1, while introducing a temporary 3 rand per litre reduction in the fuel levy . Ghana set new price floors raising petrol to 13.30 cedis per litre and diesel to 17.10 cedis . Zambia declared a national emergency, suspending excise duty and zero-rating VAT on petrol and diesel imports .
Nigeria has recorded one of the highest fuel price increases globally despite being a major oil producer and home to Africa’s largest refinery. Petrol prices have risen by nearly 40 percent, from approximately N774 per litre in late February to between N1,200 and N1,400 per litre in many areas by late March . The sharp increase reflects Nigeria’s deregulated downstream sector, where prices respond rapidly to international crude benchmarks, exchange rate movements, and supply risks. The depreciation of the naira has amplified the impact, increasing the cost of imported refined products and crude feedstock .
The Dangote Refinery has emerged as a critical supplier for the region during the crisis. The 650,000 barrels per day facility exported approximately 500,000 tons of refined products to African countries including South Africa, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Cameroon, and Togo in March 2026 . Nigeria’s exports of petrol, diesel, kerosene, and jet fuel increased to around 214,000 bpd in March from 100,000 bpd in February, with exports to other African countries rising to 90,000 bpd from 38,000 bpd .
The damage to Gulf energy infrastructure from drone and missile attacks has compounded the supply disruption. Iran has mounted reprisal attacks against Gulf states hosting American military facilities, with the UAE receiving over 2,000 drones and missiles targeting sites in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and the Fujairah oil terminal. Saudi Arabia has seen oil refineries and petrochemical plants hit, while power and energy facilities in Qatar and Kuwait have also been targeted . OPEC+ has acknowledged that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and time-consuming, affecting overall supply availability .
OPEC+ agreed on April 5 to raise output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a modest increase that energy consultants have described as “academic” as long as disruptions in the strait persist . “When the Strait of Hormuz is closed, additional barrels from OPEC+ become largely irrelevant,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official . J.P. Morgan has warned that oil prices could spike above $150 per barrel if flows via Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May .
The duration of the conflict will determine the severity of the economic damage. A short-lived disruption could limit the fallout, while a prolonged war could entrench high costs and prolong uncertainty. The IMF has indicated it will present a fuller assessment in its upcoming World Economic Outlook in April . For now, the message is clear: even if the conflict remains regionally contained, its economic consequences are global and will be felt unevenly across nations, with energy-importing economies in Africa and Asia bearing the heaviest burden.
