The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported a marginal increase in the average retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol), which rose by 1.62% from N1,034.76 in January to N1,051.47 in February 2026. According to the Petrol Price Watch released in Abuja on Friday, March 27, 2026, the current price reflects a significant 15.60% year-on-year decrease compared to the N1,245.80 recorded in February 2025.
The structural and geographic consequence of these price shifts reveals a stark disparity across Nigeria’s states and zones. In February, residents of Yobe State paid the nation’s highest average price at N1,134.73 per litre, followed closely by Sokoto and Akwa Ibom. Conversely, Lagos State enjoyed the lowest retail rates at N966.61, with Oyo and Kaduna also remaining at the lower end of the spectrum. Zonal analysis further highlights this divide, with the North-East emerging as the most expensive region at an average of N1,084.41, while the South-West remained the most affordable at N1,023.89.
Analytically, the impact on “Diesel Price Volatility and Month-on-Month Trends” shows a more aggressive upward movement in the heavy-fuel sector. The average retail price of Automotive Gas Oil (Diesel) surged by 4.30% in a single month, jumping from N1,361.57 in January to N1,420.17 in February 2026. However, mirroring the petrol trend, diesel prices also showed a year-on-year decline of 5.39% from the N1,501.05 per litre recorded exactly one year prior.
The impact on “Logistics and Regional Pricing Paradoxes” is particularly notable in the diesel market. While Lagos recorded the lowest petrol prices, it ironically registered the highest diesel prices in the country at N1,625.11 per litre, followed by Borno and Akwa Ibom. On the other end of the scale, Ogun State reported the lowest diesel rates at N1,183.31. Regionally, the North-East maintained its status as the most expensive zone for diesel at N1,496.49, while the North-Central zone offered the most competitive rates at N1,382.17.
Furthermore, the data suggests that while energy costs have cooled significantly compared to the peaks of early 2025, the short-term inflationary pressure on diesel could impact transport and manufacturing costs heading into the second quarter of 2026. The consistent premium paid in the North-East across both fuel types points toward ongoing logistical and supply chain bottlenecks in that region.
The long-term outlook for fuel pricing in Nigeria remains tied to global crude oil fluctuations and the efficiency of local refining capacity. As the NBS continues to monitor these “Price Watches,” the widening gap between state profiles suggests that internal distribution efficiency rather than just global market forces is becoming a primary driver of what the average Nigerian pays at the pump.
