Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has fallen to 14.45%, marking the first time in six years that price growth has come in below the government’s budget estimate, official figures show. The decline in inflation has been driven largely by slower rises in food prices and reflects an ongoing trend of easing price pressures across the country.
The latest data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), shows that annual inflation in November 2025 eased from 16.05% in October to 14.45% year-on-year, underscoring a sustained slowdown in consumer price growth. Food inflation, which accounts for a large share of household expenditure, also decelerated during the period, contributing to the overall moderation.
Economists and market watchers have noted that this development is significant because it places inflation below the level the government factored into its 2025 budget for the first time since 2019. Analysts say the downward movement is partly the result of a revision to the way inflation is measured, including a rebasing of the Consumer Price Index to reflect more current spending patterns, as well as broader economic adjustments.
Despite the drop, Nigeria’s inflation rate remains well above the Central Bank of Nigeria’s long-term target of single digits. The central bank has maintained its key interest rate in recent meetings, signalling caution about moving too quickly to loosen monetary policy until price pressures ease further. Officials have stressed that continued progress depends on stable exchange rates, improved food supply, and ongoing efforts to address structural economic challenges.
The decline in inflation follows a period of very high price growth that peaked in late 2024, when headline inflation approached three-decade highs. That surge earlier in the year placed severe strain on household budgets and increased the cost of essentials for millions of Nigerians. Since then, the disinflation has been steady, with inflation slowing in successive months as the effect of earlier economic reforms and seasonal changes in food supply took hold.
Government officials and policymakers have welcomed the latest figures as a sign that inflationary pressures may be easing more sustainably. However, many economists caution that underlying price challenges remain, particularly in core components such as housing and transport, which have been slower to cool. They argue that further reforms to boost production, improve supply chains and stabilise exchange rates are necessary to ensure that inflation continues on a downward path.
For households and businesses, the moderation in inflation could translate into some relief at the till and on everyday expenses, even if costs remain elevated compared with historical averages. With the festive season approaching and price pressures easing, there are hopes that consumer sentiment and economic activity could receive a modest boost in the coming months.
