The Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 18.02 per cent in September, down from 20.12 per cent in August, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. This marks another step in the country’s gradual disinflation.
On a year‑on‑year basis, the headline inflation rate now sits at 14.68 per cent, a significant drop from 32.70 per cent in September 2024. The decline largely owes to a moderation in food and energy prices, coupled with relative stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
Month‑to‑month, inflation stood at 0.72 per cent in September, slightly lower than August’s 0.74 per cent. Food inflation, which is often volatile, dropped to 16.87 per cent year‑on‑year, compared with 37.77 per cent a year earlier. Interestingly, on a month‑on‑month basis, the food index moved into negative territory at –1.57 per cent, down from 1.65 per cent in August.
The “All items less farm produces and energy” index, which is often referred to as core inflation, stood at 19.53 per cent year‑on‑year in September, notably lower than the 27.43 per cent recorded in September 2024. On a monthly basis, core inflation was 1.42 per cent, almost unchanged from August’s 1.43 per cent.
Looking at geographic breakdowns, urban inflation fell to 17.50 per cent year‑on‑year from 35.13 per cent in the same period last year, while rural inflation now sits at 18.26 per cent, down from 30.49 per cent in September 2024. States such as Adamawa (23.69 per cent), Katsina (23.53 per cent), and Nasarawa (22.29 per cent) recorded the highest year‑on‑year inflation, while Anambra (9.28 per cent), Niger (11.79 per cent), and Bauchi (12.36 per cent) saw more modest increases.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) welcomed the continued moderation in inflation, calling it a positive sign of improving macroeconomic stability. However, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of CPPE, warned that “the cost‑of‑living crisis remains acute, particularly for low‑ and middle‑income households.”
He emphasized that the next stage of policy should “prioritise welfare‑focused and cost‑reduction measures that deliver tangible relief to citizens.”
Yusuf added that to sustain the disinflation path, Nigeria must introduce reforms that “enhance productivity, stabilise prices, and reduce the structural cost of doing business,” which would help anchor the trend toward lower inflation. He also suggested that, with consistency, coordination, and structural interventions, “Nigeria can achieve a stable single‑digit inflation rate over the medium term.”
In explaining the easing inflation pressures, Yusuf cited increased food supply in the harvest season, improved exchange‑rate stability, tighter monetary policy, reduced fiscal leakages, and better coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. Yet he also cautioned that inflation remains high in critical sectors such as food and agriculture, transport, energy, housing, education, and healthcare; areas that collectively account for nearly 90 per cent of household expenses.
Overall, while the downward trend in inflation is promising, considerable challenges remain. Policymakers will need to maintain discipline and introduce targeted reforms to protect household incomes and further reduce cost pressures.
