Nigeria’s move towards state policing has crossed a major constitutional hurdle, but the financial capacity to establish and sustain the proposed forces remains a significant concern for state governments and businesses expected to support the reform.
As of November 3, 2026, 28 of Nigeria’s 36 State Houses of Assembly had approved the constitutional amendment, exceeding the required two-thirds threshold of 24 states. The National Assembly is now handling the processes required to transmit the bill to President Bola Tinubu for assent.
While the political momentum behind the reform is growing, a critical economic question remains: who will finance the additional policing structures, and can state governments sustain the financial commitment without worsening pressure on public spending?
The concern is significant because many states are already struggling to generate enough revenue to meet their existing personnel obligations.
The financial implications of establishing state police are substantial. A report by the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), published on April 24, 2026, said the steering committee on state police established by the Inspector-General of Police estimated the nationwide establishment cost at between ₦589 billion and ₦813 billion.
The committee recommended spreading the expenditure over five years because the financial burden could not be absorbed within a shorter period.
The proposed transition would require states to establish policing institutions, including State Police Service Commissions, ombudsman offices, information and communications technology infrastructure, custody facilities and forensic systems.
Beyond the initial investment, governments would face recurring expenses covering salaries, recruitment, training, patrol vehicles, equipment maintenance, fuel and operational logistics.
This means the financial challenge would not end with the recruitment of the first set of officers. States would need dependable revenue sources to keep their police institutions functioning.
BudgIT’s 2026 State of States report highlights the difficulty many governments could face in meeting these obligations. The report found that 26 of the 34 states assessed generated insufficient internally generated revenue (IGR) to cover their personnel expenditure in 2025.
An analysis of the report published by The PUNCH on September 7, 2026, put the combined shortfall at approximately ₦747 billion, reflecting the difference between the revenue generated by the affected states and their personnel expenditure.
Although state governments also depend on Federation Account allocations and other revenue sources, the findings expose their limited capacity to finance additional recurring obligations from internally generated revenue.
The Inspector-General of Police’s steering committee has proposed a dedicated State Police Fund to provide a more structured financing arrangement. The proposed framework recommends 3 per cent of Federation Account allocations and a minimum contribution of 15 per cent from each state’s security budget.
The arrangement is intended to provide more predictable funding and reduce the risk of operational dependence on individual political officeholders. However, questions remain about how the fund would be administered, how allocations would be distributed and whether the proposed contributions would be sufficient to meet the different security needs of the states.
For governments already facing competing demands for limited resources, committing part of their security budgets to a new police structure could also create pressure on other public services and development programmes.
The private sector is equally exposed to the outcome of the reform. At the 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja, President Bola Tinubu’s Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, called on the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), chambers of commerce and business associations to develop proposals for financing and implementing state police.
According to the News Agency of Nigeria’s report of October 29, 2026, Gbajabiamila identified disrupted supply chains, abandoned investments, delayed factory expansions and lost economic opportunities among the consequences of insecurity.
He urged businesses to contribute their expertise in financial planning, risk assessment and institutional management to the proposed policing framework.
However, he warned that private-sector contributions must not translate into influence over investigations or preferential treatment. He also cautioned that states unable to sustain salaries, training and equipment maintenance could become vulnerable to private patrons and unlawful demands.
The warning highlights a potential governance risk. If police institutions become excessively dependent on individual companies or wealthy contributors, their independence and impartiality could be compromised.
For businesses already spending heavily on private security, the reform could also create expectations to contribute to public policing, raising questions about the financial responsibilities of companies operating in vulnerable communities.
A more responsive policing structure could improve local intelligence gathering, strengthen community security and reduce the economic losses associated with kidnapping, attacks on infrastructure, agricultural disruptions and interruptions to commercial activities.
However, those potential benefits will depend on whether the institutions are adequately funded, professionally managed and independently supervised.
For state governments, the challenge is balancing security expenditure with investments in roads, healthcare, education and other infrastructure that support economic productivity. For businesses, it is ensuring that a reform intended to improve security does not create another financial burden or expose commercial interests to political influence.
The constitutional amendment has secured the required support from state legislatures, bringing the proposal closer to presidential consideration. But legislative approval does not automatically translate into financial readiness.
With the establishment cost estimated at between ₦589 billion and ₦813 billion over five years, and BudgIT’s findings highlighting existing revenue gaps across many states, the sustainability of state policing remains a major economic question.
Nigeria may be moving closer to decentralised policing, but the success of the reform will depend not only on the number of states that approve it, but also on whether governments can afford to operate it and keep the resulting institutions accountable and independent.
