Nigeria’s oil industry has recorded a major improvement in the amount of crude oil being lost through theft and other production challenges, according to businessman and energy investor Tony Elumelu.
Elumelu said oil production losses have dropped dramatically from about 97 percent before President Bola Tinubu took office in 2023 to just 2 percent as of June 2026.
He made the statement while speaking directly to President Tinubu in a video circulating on social media. According to Elumelu, the latest figures show that 98 percent of the country’s oil production was properly accounted for in June, leaving only a 2 percent loss.
The businessman, whose energy company currently produces more than 58,000 barrels of crude oil per day, said the development represents a significant change in Nigeria’s oil sector.
Elumelu explained that oil companies carry out monthly fiscalisation to track production and determine how much crude is actually accounted for. He said the June figures provided strong evidence that losses in the industry have reduced considerably.
“Last month, for the month of June, we got 98 percent. So, 2 percent loss. It’s significant,” Elumelu said.
The development is particularly important because crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism have been among the biggest problems affecting Nigeria’s petroleum industry for years.
Elumelu has previously spoken strongly about the scale of crude theft in Nigeria. In 2022, he warned that the country was losing more than 95 percent of production in some areas to thieves.
He cited the Bonny Terminal as an example, saying it was expected to receive more than 200,000 barrels of crude per day but was at one point receiving fewer than 3,000 barrels. The severe disruption contributed to major operational challenges in the sector, including Shell’s declaration of force majeure at the time.
Elumelu argued that Nigeria’s failure to meet its OPEC production target was not simply a result of inadequate investment. He said crude theft and pipeline vandalism were major factors behind the country’s weak production levels.
However, the latest figures suggest that efforts to secure oil-producing areas and protect production infrastructure are beginning to produce results.
Nigeria has also recently been producing above its OPEC quota. OPEC data showed that the country’s crude production averaged about 1.505 million barrels per day in July 2026, slightly above its 1.50 million-barrel daily quota.
Despite the improvement, production remains below the 1.84 million barrels per day target used as the basis for Nigeria’s 2026 budget.
Elumelu also stressed that energy remains critical to Nigeria’s economic future. He said the country’s large young population could become a major economic advantage if Nigeria provides reliable and affordable energy.
Meanwhile, security agencies continue to intensify operations against illegal oil activities. The Nigerian Navy recently dismantled three illegal refining sites in Rivers State and recovered about 91,000 litres of suspected stolen crude.
The continued crackdown, combined with improved monitoring and production security, could help Nigeria reduce losses further and increase crude output.
For an economy that depends heavily on petroleum revenue, sustained progress in reducing oil theft could provide the government with more crude to sell, strengthen public revenue and support investment across the wider economy.
