The most recent Inflation Expectations Survey (IES) conducted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for December 2025 reveals a stark economic reality: the burden of Nigeria’s inflation crisis is disproportionately crushing those with the least financial resilience. The report highlights that Nigerians earning between N30,000 and N100,000 per month recorded the highest perception of inflation during the review period.
The survey, which serves as a barometer for public sentiment regarding the economy, interviewed 3,512 respondents, split between 1,848 firms and 1,664 households. The results paint a picture of a populace under significant strain, with 54.9 percent of all respondents categorizing the inflation rate as “high.” However, when the data is disaggregated by income bracket, the distress becomes even more palpable among the lower-middle class. A staggering 59.7 percent of households within the N30,000 to N100,000 income band viewed inflation as high, signaling that this demographic is feeling the pinch of rising prices more acutely than any other group.
Respondents identified a specific set of drivers fueling this inflationary pressure. Topping the list were energy costs, transportation expenses, the volatile exchange rate, pervasive insecurity, and high interest rates. These factors have combined to create a “perfect storm” for the average Nigerian consumer. Conversely, factors such as natural disasters, the activities of middlemen, and infrastructural challenges were perceived as less significant contributors to the current inflationary trend, though they still play a role in the broader economic landscape.
Geography also played a subtle but noticeable role in how inflation was experienced. The survey uncovered a mild urban-rural divide, with 52.9 percent of urban respondents perceiving inflation as high, compared to 51.6 percent of rural dwellers. This disparity likely reflects the higher cost of living inherent in city life, where transportation and housing costs are typically steeper.
The business community is not immune to these pressures, though the impact varies significantly by firm size. Micro-businesses, often the lifeblood of the informal economy, reported the highest stress levels, with 52.8 percent indicating a high inflation perception. They were followed by large firms at 50.7 percent. Interestingly, medium-sized enterprises appeared to be slightly more insulated, recording the lowest perception of high inflation at 45.5 percent.
Despite the grim outlook on current prices, there is a glimmer of optimism regarding the future. The overall index for inflation perception actually declined from 43.5 points in November to 41.7 points in December. This drop indicates that while the current situation is difficult, there is a growing sentiment among both businesses and households that inflationary pressures may be easing. Business respondents, in particular, drove this positive shift, with many predicting that expenditure would remain stable in the coming months.
The CBN report notes that this “drop in the index indicates improved sentiments about prices.” Breaking it down further, business inflation perception dipped to 48.3 percent in December from 50.3 percent the previous month, while household perception eased to 52.2 percent from 54.7 percent. This tentatively suggests that the aggressive monetary policies and structural adjustments being implemented may be starting to influence public expectations, even if the immediate reality on the street remains harsh for the country’s lowest earners.
Data from SBM Intelligence corroborates the uneven nature of Nigeria’s inflationary landscape, particularly through the lens of food affordability. The firm’s “Jollof Index” for Q3 2025 reported a deceptive “technical decline” in food prices, noting that the national average cost to prepare a pot of Jollof rice dropped marginally by 3.17 percent to N26,656. However, SBM analysts were quick to classify this drop as a “fragile” seasonal correction due to the harvest, rather than a sustainable economic improvement, warning that the cost of food remains structurally high due to persistent supply-side collapses.
Commenting on these findings in late 2025, SBM analyst Ejechi emphasized the precarious position of the Nigerian economy. “Despite the improvements we’re observing, both countries [Nigeria and Ghana] walk a tight rope and must employ tact in their economic policies moving forward,” Ejechi stated. The analyst further highlighted that “insecurity remains a critical concern,” noting that non-official tolls and safety risks on transportation routes continue to artificially inflate logistics costs, preventing genuine price stabilization for the average consumer.
