Fuel importers have increased the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, from ₦1,230 to ₦1,350 per litre, with the new pricing taking effect on July 17, 2026, dealing a setback to expectations that additional import licences would encourage competition and ease fuel costs.
The latest increase is expected to ripple across the downstream petroleum market, as filling stations sourcing imported products are likely to raise pump prices in response to higher acquisition costs. Industry analysts say the development highlights the continued vulnerability of Nigeria’s deregulated fuel market to global oil price movements, exchange rate volatility and supply chain disruptions.
The price adjustment comes amid rising international shipping and product costs linked to renewed geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran. Concerns over disruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategic oil transit routes, have pushed up the cost of refined petroleum products across global markets.
Figures published by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) underscore the pressure on import costs. The association’s daily energy bulletin shows that the estimated landing cost of imported petrol through the ASPM pricing window climbed from ₦983.92 per litre on June 24 to ₦1,135.73 per litre on July 9, representing an increase of about 15.4% within two weeks. The surge coincided with continued weakness in the naira, which traded at an average of about ₦1,367.26 per US dollar during the period.
The increase follows the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA)’s approval of fresh petrol import licences for the third quarter of 2026. According to market intelligence firm Argus, AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Bono, NIPCO and Pinnacle received approvals to import petrol, while Matrix secured approval to import diesel.
Market participants had expected the additional licences to deepen competition, improve product availability and place downward pressure on prices. However, industry stakeholders say the sharp rise in import costs has effectively neutralised those expectations.
A petroleum marketer noted that retailers purchasing imported products have little flexibility, as the higher depot prices will inevitably be reflected at filling stations through increased pump prices.
Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery continues to offer relatively lower pricing than imported supplies. The refinery recently adopted a dollar-denominated pricing model, fixing its ex-depot petrol price at $0.779 per litre from July 13 following the suspension of the naira-for-crude arrangement. At prevailing official exchange rates, the price translates to roughly ₦1,075 per litre before transportation, storage, distribution and marketers’ margins are added.
The widening gap between imported fuel costs and locally refined supplies is expected to reinforce the refinery’s competitive position, although analysts caution that continued exchange rate volatility and elevated global crude prices could still influence domestic fuel pricing in the months ahead.
