Nigeria’s electricity generation has plummeted to an average of 4,300 megawatts due to severe gas supply constraints, the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) has announced, exposing the chronic fragility of a power sector whose dysfunction directly constrains economic productivity and household welfare. In a statement issued on Friday, NISO attributed the decline to thermal plants receiving less than 43 percent of the gas volumes required for optimal operation, forcing system-wide load shedding and reduced energy allocation to distribution companies.
The figures are stark. Thermal power stations collectively require approximately 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet of gas daily to operate at capacity. As of 23 February 2026, actual supply stood at just 692.00 MMSCF per day. This gap has fundamentally constrained generation output, leaving businesses and households to contend with erratic supply that forces reliance on expensive diesel generators and solar alternatives.
For Nigeria’s economy, each megawatt of ungenerated power represents foregone industrial output, impaired service delivery, and compressed household incomes. Manufacturers, who already spend up to 40 percent of production costs on self-generated energy, face further margin erosion as grid instability persists. Small and medium enterprises, the backbone of urban employment, struggle to maintain operations and meet customer commitments. The cumulative effect is a drag on GDP growth that compounds over time.
The NISO statement acknowledged the inevitability of load shedding under such conditions. “When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation percentages across all distribution networks to maintain grid stability and prevent system disturbances,” the agency explained.
The gas supply shortfall follows a 12 to 15 February maintenance on Seplat Energy facilities, which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited had warned would impact power generation. However, the magnitude of the ongoing reduction suggests deeper structural issues in gas supply to the power sector, including payment arrears to gas producers, pipeline vandalism, and infrastructure constraints that have long plagued the industry.
For households, the impact is measured in disrupted routines, spoiled food, and compromised security. For businesses, it translates into missed orders, idle equipment, and reduced competitiveness. The 4,300MW generation level, serving a population exceeding 200 million, compares dismally with peers such as South Africa’s 45,000MW capacity or Egypt’s 60,000MW, underscoring the scale of Nigeria’s power deficit.
NISO expressed regret for the inconvenience and assured that efforts are ongoing to restore full energy allocation once gas supply improves. Yet for an economy where power remains the single most binding constraint on industrialisation, such assurances offer cold comfort to manufacturers calculating lost production, traders watching perishable goods spoil, and families struggling to afford generator fuel.
The solution requires not temporary fixes but systemic reform: ensuring gas producers are paid, protecting pipelines from vandalism, and creating a market framework that rewards reliable supply. Until then, Nigeria’s economic potential will remain hostage to its inability to convert abundant gas reserves into the reliable electricity its people and businesses desperately need.
