The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that intensifying conflict in the Persian Gulf has triggered one of the most rapid and severe disruptions to global commodity flows in recent times, threatening agricultural production and food security worldwide. Chief Economist Máximo Torero told journalists at UN Headquarters that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by more than 90 per cent since hostilities escalated, a critical maritime corridor through which 35 per cent of global crude oil flows, 30 per cent of fertilizer trade, and a fifth of liquefied natural gas normally pass daily. The disruption comes at a moment when global food systems were already navigating the aftershocks of previous supply chain shocks, climate pressures, and lingering inflationary trends.
For African economies, the FAO’s warning carries particular weight. The continent is a net importer of both fertilizers and fuel, two essential inputs for agricultural production. Fertilizer price volatility directly affects planting decisions, crop yields, and ultimately food availability across markets that are already characterised by thin margins and limited storage capacity. Many African nations have limited capacity to absorb sudden price spikes without resorting to subsidies or emergency imports that strain fiscal balances. Torero’s description of a “double shock” from rising fuel and fertilizer costs captures the compounding effect that hits farmers at both ends: higher input costs and, in many cases, reduced access to the imported supplies needed for the next planting season.
The timing of the disruption compounds the risk. Torero emphasised that “temporality matters a lot right now,” noting that the clock is ticking as planting windows approach across different agricultural zones. If a solution is found quickly, markets could stabilise within roughly three months. However, a prolonged disruption would affect farmers globally, with impacts cascading into the next season. Reduced crop yields, shifts in planting patterns, and potential substitution effects would alter supply dynamics at a time when global food stocks are already under pressure from climate-related production shortfalls in major growing regions.
The FAO’s analysis highlights the vulnerability of import-dependent nations that lack the fiscal space to secure alternative supplies at short notice. Torero called for emergency balance-of-payment support to such countries before planting windows close, a recommendation that underscores the link between geopolitical stability, trade finance, and food security. For many low-income countries, the ability to secure letters of credit for fertilizer imports depends on maintaining foreign exchange reserves that are already stretched by debt service obligations and other competing demands. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz adds another layer of pressure to these systems.
In the medium term, Torero stressed the need for countries to diversify fertilizer import sources, strengthen regional reserve sharing mechanisms, and avoid export restrictions that could exacerbate price volatility. These measures represent a shift away from just-in-time supply chains toward greater resilience, recognising that the concentration of critical inputs in a small number of production and transit locations creates systemic vulnerability. For Africa, where fertilizer use remains below agronomic recommendations in many areas, improving access to affordable inputs is both a productivity imperative and a food security priority.
The FAO official also warned of potential competition from the biofuel sector if oil prices rise above $100 per barrel. Such competition could divert agricultural commodities away from food uses, further tightening supplies and pushing prices higher. While higher prices would benefit farmers in the short term, Torero noted, “it will be bad for consumers because prices will increase.” This tension between producer and consumer interests underscores the complexity of policy responses to commodity market disruptions.
Torero concluded by calling for food systems to be treated with the same strategic importance as energy and transport sectors, with corresponding investment to minimise shocks. The FAO’s framing reflects a recognition that food security is not merely a humanitarian concern but a fundamental component of global stability that requires coordinated, proactive management rather than reactive crisis response.
