As the countdown to the festive season begins, Nigerians are receiving urgent appeals to exercise extreme caution, with experts warning that the customary increase in accidents this time of year is now compounded by stubbornly high levels of violence across the country.
The period from October to December, colloquially known as the ‘Ember Months,’ historically sees a surge in commercial activity, travel, and social engagements, often leading to a spike in road accidents, fire outbreaks, and other mishaps. However, an analysis of the last year’s security situation reveals that citizens are now navigating a deadly combination of accidental and structural security risks, making vigilance a critical survival measure.
The Rush and the Risks: Safety and Insurance
The primary caution during the Ember Months revolves around the rush to meet year-end targets, which often translates into carelessness. Olaotan Soyinka, Managing Director of Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc., emphasized this point recently in Lagos, calling on the public to be “cautious and safety-conscious” to protect lives and properties.
“Accidents are common during the ’ember’ months as a result of increased activities during the period, with people rushing to meet up with their goals as the year rounds up,” Soyinka noted, advising that even amid the rush, people should “still exercise caution so that we do not get involved in unnecessary mishaps that could have been averted.”
He underscored the importance of treating insurance not as a license for recklessness, but as a crucial safety net. “Insurance should be seen as a respite in case of the unforeseen and inevitable,” he said, cautioning against throwing caution to the wind simply because a policy is in place. Known non-security risks that surge in this period include: motor crashes (driven by increased inter-state travel, high speeds, and poor road conditions); fire outbreaks (often linked to increased use of electricity, cooking, and fireworks during celebrations); burglary and armed robbery (targeting homes and businesses with high cash flow during the shopping season).
The Underlying Security Baseline
Adding a layer of complexity to the Ember Month caution are the persistent security challenges, particularly in the northern and central regions. Media-reported fatalities from violence—including terrorism, banditry, and communal clashes—have remained alarmingly high over the past year, demanding heightened security awareness for travelers and residents.
Data from the past 12 months, compiled by SBM Intelligence, shows that nearly 8,000 deaths were reported from October 2024 to September 2025 across all four geopolitical zones, highlighting the scale of the ongoing crisis. This includes a total of 417 security personnel killed in the line of duty, underscoring the risks faced by citizens and enforcement agencies alike.
The analysis shows that major organized non-state actors like Bandits and Boko Haram/Terrorists remain the principal cause of deaths, with Civilians consistently representing the largest group of victims.
Key Areas of Concern: A Geopolitical Breakdown
The North Central and North West regions have rotated as the epicentres of violence throughout the year.
North Central Volatility: The North Central zone, which includes states like Benue, Plateau, and Niger, has been subject to immense instability. This region recorded the highest number of deaths in Q2 2025 (April-June), with a staggering 1,016 reported fatalities in that quarter alone, including an alarming spike in killings in Benue State (548 deaths in Q2).
North West Banditry: Driven primarily by banditry and kidnapping, the North West (Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto) has been highly volatile. It registered the highest death tolls in Q1 2025 and Q3 2025. Zamfara reported the highest number of deaths of any single state in the most recent quarter (Q3 2025), with 414 reported fatalities.
North East Insurgency: Borno State, the core area of the Boko Haram conflict, remained one of the top two deadliest states for three consecutive quarters (Q4 2024, Q1 2025, Q2 2025), demonstrating the entrenched nature of the insurgency.
While the figures saw a decline in the last recorded quarter (Q3 2025), with 1,106 deaths reported nationwide, the festive period—marked by predictable movements of people and goods—historically provides new opportunities for criminals. For instance, in the last Ember Month period (Q4 2024), 1,712 deaths were reported across the country.
A Double Call for Vigilance
For the millions of Nigerians traveling or conducting high-value business in the coming weeks, the call to action is twofold: prioritize defensive driving (drive below speed limits, ensure vehicle maintenance is current, and avoid late-night travel on high-risk interstate routes); increase situational awareness (be mindful of surroundings, especially in crowded markets, transport hubs, and high-risk flashpoints identified by local security reports).
As the government and security agencies mobilize to manage the traditional festive season surge, individual alertness remains the most immediate line of defense against both accidental misfortunes and premeditated violence.
