Construction of Aliko Dangote’s planned mega-refinery in Lamu, Kenya, is scheduled to begin on September 30, 2026, creating a new refining hub on Africa’s eastern coast that could reshape competition for refined petroleum markets across the continent.
Reuters reported on September 9, 2026, that the refinery is planned with a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day and is estimated at $15 billion to $16 billion. Kenya News Agency reported on September 22, 2026, that preparations were underway for the September 30, 2026 groundbreaking and put the project cost at $15 billion.
The planned facility would be larger than Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day Lekki refinery in Nigeria, which began operations in January 2024. Kenya News Agency reported on September 21, 2026, that the Lamu refinery is expected to become Kenya’s largest private-sector investment and supply refined petroleum products to the wider East African market.
The strategic significance for Nigeria lies in the markets the two facilities could ultimately serve.
Dangote’s Lagos refinery has been positioned as a major source of refined petroleum products for Nigeria and the wider African market. Reuters reported on September 8, 2026, that the Nigerian refinery was operating at 700,000 barrels per day and that Dangote planned further expansion of its refining capacity, alongside the construction of the Kenyan refinery.
The Lamu project, however, gives the Dangote Group a refining base much closer to major East African fuel markets. Kenya News Agency reported on September 21, 2026, that the planned refinery is expected to supply Kenya and reduce the region’s dependence on imported refined fuel.
That geography could become significant for Nigerian fuel exporters. Products shipped from Lekki to East African destinations would have to travel from Nigeria’s Atlantic coast around the African continent, while a refinery at Lamu would be positioned directly on the Indian Ocean and closer to markets such as Uganda, Tanzania and South Sudan.
The project therefore has the potential to reduce the room for Nigerian refined products in East Africa, although that outcome will depend on the refinery’s eventual production costs, crude supply, logistics and the prices offered to regional buyers.
Crude supply remains one of the biggest uncertainties. Reuters reported on September 9, 2026, that Kenya currently lacks commercial crude production and that potential supplies from Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan face infrastructure and other challenges. The refinery could consequently rely partly on imported crude shipped by sea.
The timing also means the competitive impact will not be immediate. Reuters reported on September 9, 2026, that completion was projected for around 2030, while Kenya News Agency reported on September 23, 2026, that the refinery was expected to be completed by 2030 after an estimated construction period of roughly 2.5 to four years.
For Dangote Group, the Kenyan investment would create a second major refining platform serving two different African regional markets. For Nigeria, it means the country’s ambition to use domestic refining capacity to become a major supplier of refined petroleum products across Africa could face stronger competition in East Africa once the Lamu facility becomes operational.
The Lamu refinery is therefore not simply an expansion of Dangote’s business footprint. If completed at its planned scale, it could alter the geography of African fuel trade by placing a major refining operation directly inside one of the continent’s fastest-growing regional markets.
