Cocoa futures in New York fell to their lowest level since February 2024 on Monday, driven by a surge in deliveries to Ivory Coast ports that suggests improving global supplies after two years of tightness. Prices dropped as much as 2.7 percent during the session and are now trading about 60 percent below the record highs reached in December, as expectations of a larger global surplus continue to build.
The downturn follows several weeks of unexpectedly strong arrivals at Ivorian ports, the key indicator used by traders to gauge crop performance in the world’s largest cocoa producer. Deliveries have exceeded 100,000 tonnes for three consecutive weeks and are now approaching the pace recorded at this point last season, reversing the sluggish start to the 2024–25 season in October.
Analysts say the rebound in arrivals reflects a mix of factors. Some of the recent volume is believed to be carryover stock from the mid-crop earlier in the year, while shifting production and collection patterns have pushed more beans toward Ivory Coast’s main export hubs. The sustained pace has fuelled market speculation that global supply conditions may improve more quickly than anticipated, prompting traders to unwind bullish positions.
Andrew Moriarty of Expana said that while the recent numbers have exceeded expectations, arrivals are likely to slow and move back in line with last year’s trend early in the new year. He noted that field surveys still point to a main crop that could be “slightly weaker” than last season due to dry spells earlier in the year that affected pod development.
Even so, the current trajectory has increased confidence that the severe supply deficits that drove last year’s price surge may ease in 2025. This has tempered demand, as chocolate manufacturers and processors take advantage of lower prices but continue to manage inventories cautiously.
The decline in cocoa futures also has broader implications for the global chocolate industry and West African economies. Lower prices may ease cost pressures for confectionery companies that have struggled with historically high input costs, potentially slowing the pace of retail price increases seen in major consumer markets. However, for producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana, sustained price weakness could reduce export revenue and strain government programmes that support farmers.
For now, traders are watching upcoming weather patterns and early-season crop assessments to determine whether the recent supply momentum will persist. Market participants say that while Monday’s fall underscores growing confidence in an eventual surplus, uncertainty remains high, especially if weather conditions deteriorate or if mid-crop prospects weaken later in the season.
With cocoa still trading far above long-term averages despite the recent slide, analysts expect continued volatility as the market rebalances after one of the most turbulent periods in its history.
