Nigeria has fallen short of its oil production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for the seventh consecutive month, limiting the country’s ability to benefit from rising global crude prices triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The latest production figures indicate that Nigeria pumped about 1.46 million barrels per day in January 2026, roughly 40,000 barrels below its OPEC+ allocation of 1.5 million barrels per day. The shortfall continues a trend that has persisted for most of the past year, leaving the country unable to fully capitalise on tightening global oil supply.
Oil prices have recently climbed as tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran intensified. Brent crude futures reached $72.48 per barrel last Friday, the highest level since July, amid concerns that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could restrict supply. The strategic waterway accounts for more than 20 percent of global oil shipments.
Market analysts warn that prices could climb even further if instability continues. Analysts at Barclays and RBC Capital Markets have suggested crude could surpass $100 per barrel should the conflict escalate.
For Nigeria, however, the rally presents limited benefit due to persistent production challenges.
Based on cumulative underproduction of about 18.12 million barrels over the past year, Nigeria is estimated to have lost roughly $1.31 billion in potential revenue. The calculation uses the average price of Bonny Light crude at $72.08 per barrel.
Nigeria exceeded its OPEC quota in only three months in 2025 — January, June and July — while missing the target in nine consecutive months. The largest gap occurred in September when production averaged 1.39 million barrels per day, creating a daily shortfall of around 110,000 barrels.
Data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report highlights differences in production estimates. Secondary sources, which are often used to track actual output, placed Nigeria’s January production at 1.46 million barrels per day. However, figures submitted directly by Nigerian authorities were lower at about 1.31 million barrels per day.
Despite the production gap, Nigeria remains Africa’s largest oil producer ahead of Libya, which produced roughly 1.28 million barrels per day in February.
Industry experts attribute Nigeria’s recurring underperformance to operational and security challenges in the oil sector. Persistent crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure, and production disruptions in the Niger Delta continue to limit output.
Analysts note that countries with strong production capacity often benefit when global oil prices rise during geopolitical crises. However, Nigeria’s limited output means the country cannot fully capture the financial gains from higher prices.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian government has set ambitious production targets. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, the new chief executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, has pledged to improve production through regulatory stability, operational efficiency, and stronger revenue management.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company has also outlined plans to increase output to two million barrels per day within two years and three million barrels per day by 2030.
However, current production trends suggest those goals remain some distance away.
Nigeria’s 2026 budget is based on a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel and projected production of 1.84 million barrels per day — assumptions that are already diverging from current market realities.
